The unexpected and extraordinary challenges created by COVID-19 mean that historical data is of little use to hotels as they try to plan ahead.
Before, hotels would often forecast based on the successes of the previous year. But 2019 figures pulled from the PMS or RMS are not going to be of much help as hoteliers plot a path through 2020, 2021 or beyond.
Instead, they need to look at forward-looking data sets that can help gauge market demand and consumer sentiment.
There are four datasets we recommend hotels take a closer look at in the months ahead, these are:
- Cancellations
- On the books
- New reservations
- Website traffic
At present, we are monitoring the data on each of these metrics for the next 18 months for the four global regions of North America, LATAM, EMEA and APAC through our bi-weekly Pulse Report.
By looking 18 months ahead we are able to track waves of recovery and growing market demand, as consumers typically look to postpone unessential travel by 12 months or more.
Cancellations
Cancellations are never a welcome metric to track, but they are incredibly useful for forward planning, as Isabel Eisenach, Solutions Engineer, EMEA explained: “Cancellations data also shows the volatility of some of the new bookings that are coming in. We might be seeing that new bookings are coming in for the end of 2020 or early 2021. But maybe a week later we see cancellations of that business coming in. This shows us there isn't much confidence in those bookings.”
On the books
This metric, often also referred to as ‘pace’, shows the level of reservations made for a particular date in the future. It gives an overall picture of how the hotel business will fare in the weeks and months ahead.
Often tracked against same time last year (STLY), on the books can also prove a good indicator of consumer confidence.
New reservations
The metric everyone wants to measure, new bookings are a good indicator of business pick up. By analyzing new reservations for the next 18 months we can track patterns in:
- Booking date
- Stay date
- Lead time
- Length of stay
- Where the booking came from (market and distribution channel)
This information will be vital as hotels plan for re-opening and early operations staffing levels.
The Pulse Report provides new reservations data by region, so even if your hotel is not experiencing pick-up, if you can see this trend emerging in your regional market you can strategize accordingly.
Website data
Pulled from a hotel’s website booking engine, website data includes bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com.
This data shows the conversion rate of the hotel’s website (bookings) as well as helping hotels identify the behaviors of those visits that are not converting. The booking engine gives us two key pieces of information that help map market demand and consumer confidence: regrets and denials.
Regrets are when someone visits a hotel’s website, checks out your rates and decides not to book. This might be because the rates are too high.
“As the recovery happens, if you start to see a lot of traffic coming to your booking engine and a lot of it is regretting then that could be an indicator that your rates are too high. And if you want to convert these people you need to bring your rates back down,” said Daniel Lofton, Director of Hospitality Solutions, Americas.
Denials are when a customer comes to your website, checks availability and doesn’t find the availability because either the hotel is already fully booked, or because there is a restriction in place that did not allow the customer to book. At present, hotels that have not reopened may also be generating denials.
“With this information, we're able to keep our finger on the pulse and understand how the volume of willingness to travel is actually stepping up in the market,” explained Juan Ruano, Director of Hospitality Solutions, EMEA.
Together, all four metrics can help hotels better understand consumer confidence for their market and plan ahead.
To discover more about how these metrics are faring in your region, check out the Pulse Report. Subscribe for free and receive the bi-monthly Pulse Report direct to your inbox. Register at: https://www.duettocloud.com/pulse-signup