Lodging Econometrics Announces Revision Of Economic Assumptions
PORTSMOUTH, NH — Lodging Econometrics (LE) has announced a complete revision of its macro assumptions for the economy and the near term direction of the lodging industry as a result of the tragic events of September 11.
Adjusting its "mild recessionary" scenario, LE now sees a steeper thrust followed by a slow, shallow recovery beginning in mid to late 2002 at the earliest.
"Important economic and lodging indicators released for August had confirmed earlier that both the economy and the lodging industry were already on a new, downward recessionary track," said Patrick H. Ford, President of Lodging Econometrics. LE announced its revisions in a special edition of Quarterly Perspectives, its new strategic planning newsletter.
"Compiling insights of leading economists and lodging executives into a reliable working hypotheses about the industry's 'Big Picture' has been an arduous task in this time of great uncertainty," said Ford. "International, political and economic events will continue to remain fluid for some time and will necessitate a number of ongoing updates. However, we're confident that we have a very good post September 11 'baseline scenario' in place that will serve as a solid foundation for further revisions."
"For our upcoming third quarter report to be published in November we will include another analysis with updated forecasts about the length and breadth of the downturn as we gain added visibility about political, military and economic conditions," he said.
LE also announced that it has reviewed many suggestions and ideas arising from within the industry about how to get the American public traveling again. LE's editorial staff has synthesized the best of these in a "Recovery Plan for the Travel Industry," which also appears in the Special Edition of Quarterly Perspectives.
The plan calls for a "bottom up" industry-wide offensive to restore public confidence in travel. It emphasizes hotel executive pro-activity, partnerships with industry related travel groups, promotional programs for frequent travelers, and special pricing programs to recover lost business. LE offers this plan to all members of the lodging industry as a framework for an ongoing business model with the thought that they might find ideas worthy of incorporating into their own local planning.
"We appreciate the efforts of our industry and association leaders who have met with governmental officials to underscore the importance of the travel industry to our overall economy. We are grateful for their leadership," said Ford. "LE's plan synchronizes perfectly with their efforts calling for widespread activity at all levels throughout the industry."
To obtain a full copy of the special edition of Quarterly Perspectives, contact Bruce Ford, Director of Sales and Marketing at Lodging Econometrics, (603) 431-8740, ext. 18, or email:
Headquartered in Portsmouth, NH, Lodging Econometrics, the research division of National Hotel Realty, is the lodging industry's real estate market expert. It analyzes Supply Trends, the Development Pipeline, the Current Hotel Supply and Real Estate Values for every major U.S. city. It also tracks all New Development projects, Sales Transactions and the Strategic Plans of major hotel companies, REITS and investor groups. National Hotel realty provides brokerage, consulting and management services to the lodging, real estate and lending industries.