Speech by Mr. Francesco Frangialli, Secretary-General of the World Tourism Organization, on the occasion of the inauguration of the ITB (Berlin, Germany, 16 March 2002)
This great Berlin fair opens at a time when the tourist industry of Germany, Europe and, indeed, the world, is wondering about its future. And with good reason: with a decline of 1.3 percent, 2001 was the first year to register a significant contraction in the number of international arrivals since the end of the Second World War. After the exceptional results of 2000, the "millennium year", two factors have coincided to produce the current...
The first, whose impact should in no case be underestimated, was the weakness of the economies of the main tourist generating countries. This has been present since the start of last year with the slowdown of the U.S. economy, the continued stagnation of Japan's, the difficulties of the German economy, which has had repercussions on Europe as a whole…
The second factor, of course, stems from the immense tragedy of September 11 and its enormous media impact.
As a result of the confluence of these two factors -quite different in their origin, but convergent in their effects- we are now going through the most serious crisis in the history of world tourism.
The crisis has primarily affected long-haul destinations, those that are directly dependent on the U.S. generating market, and destinations in Arab and Moslem countries, which have once again unjustly fallen victim to circumstances that are beyond their control.
Other regions and certain market segments have fared better: East Asia-Pacific has maintained positive growth; destinations in Central Europe and the North Mediterranean have remained steady; domestic, rural and cultural tourism have more than held their own; budget accommodations have fared better than luxury hotels; and land transport has grown while air travel has declined.
Faced with such a multi-faceted crisis, the World Tourism Organization has been more active than ever. Yesterday, the "Recovery Committee" formed by the Organization held its fourth meeting, right here in Berlin. By exchanging informations, experiences and services, we are helping our members, both countries and businesses, to carry out a real-time assessment of the situation and to respond to it in the best possible way.
Already, we see the light at the end of the tunnel. Confirming our analyses and predictions, January and February, have been better than November and December, and we expect a staggered improvement to take place by mid-year at least in Europe, Africa, the West Mediterranean, and the Caribbean, to a greater or lesser extent in each case.
Our Committee noted yesterday that the tourism industry has entered into a phase of clear, strong and increasing recovery in the major generating markets, accompanied by a likely redistribution among destinations.
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Ladies and gentlemen, confronted by such an earth-shaking event, world tourism has once again demonstrated its resilience.
Over the years, in the wake of events such as the Gulf War in 1991, the attack in Luxor, Egypt, in 1997, the Asian financial and monetary crisis in 1997-1998, or successive jolts in the eastern Mediterranean and the Balkans, we have seen many regional examples in which growth returned to previous levels after an initial shock. This time, the shock is global in scope, but so has been the industry's show of strength.
An accident of unprecedented magnitude, such as the one that was set off by the events of September 11, can affect radically the world tourism industry. It may lead to the postponement of travel or to the reshuffling of destinations, but it does not result in a permanent loss. All the evidence suggests that, barring any new military or political developments, tourism is well on its way to resuming its forward progress, which, after all, is what it does best!
Our greatest reason to be confident lies in consumer behaviour. The need to travel, whether for business or leisure, is too deeply ingrained in our societies to be easily effaced. It would be an egregious mistake to consider tourism consumption as a superfluous luxury. Unfortunately, not everyone has access to travel, but for those who do, it fulfils a deep-seated and irreducible need felt by our modern societies.
This resilience of tourism demand in the face of such vicissitudes constitutes the bedrock on which the World Tourism Organization bases its long-term projections. The WTO stands firm in predicting a tripling of worldwide flows and a doubling of European flows between 1995 and 2020, as well as in projecting that the milestone of 1 billion international arrivals will be reached in 2010, and that the 1.5 billion mark will be surpassed in 2020.
The prospects for medium- and long-term growth remain strong. This means that we should be on guard for all the different kinds of pressure such growth will bring - some of which are already being felt - in natural sites, cultural monuments, transport infrastructure and host communities. It is therefore essential to continue to think in terms of environmental, social and cultural impact, and to act in terms of sustainable development: we must avoid the consequences of uncontrolled growth, which would be intolerable.
This is precisely what we are doing in this "International Year of Ecotourism", and by preparing with the entire United Nations system, ten years after Rio de Janeiro, the "World Summit on Sustainable Development" in Johannesburg. There, above and beyond the crisis, we shall reaffirm our commitment to balanced, responsible and sustainable tourism.