After peaking in Q2 2008, the Total Global Construction Pipeline decreased 6% to 10,169 projects/1,707,817 rooms. All regions reached cyclical peaks in Q208 except Canada, the Caribbean, Mexico, Central and South America, which crested earlier in Q108. All regions experienced a Quarter over Quarter (QoQ) decline in Q308. Many showed a noticeable deceleration in projects and room counts.

Several factors have prompted this turnabout:

  • Global economies are experiencing a serious slowdown. Some significant regions are characterized as recessionary. The slowdown is expected to continue through 2009 and perhaps into 2010.
  • Operating performance drifted down from the 2007 highs throughout the first half of 2008. The decline accelerated in early summer when the impact of the economic and banking crisis became fully apparent. The failure of a number of financial institutions in mid-September and accelerating downward trends in the stock markets and bourses compounded the situation further.
  • Serious cutbacks in leisure and business travel have turned guest room demand negative, causing occupancies and room rates to fall and prompting declines in RevPAR. The result is that Pipeline growth has concluded for this cycle and has turned downward. Lending has been mostly unavailable throughout the year, with larger project development in major cities, financial centers and resort areas, seeing the most significant impact. Smaller to mid-size project development has also been affected but to a lesser degree, as some such projects have been able to source funding. However, loan amounts are less and terms are far more restrictive. Another factor contributing to Pipeline declines is New Hotel Openings, which will be at decade highs in 2009-10.

Lodging Econometrics (LE) of Portsmouth, NH is the global authority for hotel real estate. LE conducts Supply Side research for all markets, developers and brands and companies in: U.S., Canada, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, Europe, Asia, Middle East, South America, and Africa.

Kathleen Hurley
+1 603-431-8740 ext. 12
Lodging Econometrics

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