RevPAR growth positive by 2013 in Barcelona and Tokyo
Tokyo’s outlook for 2012 is positive, with RevPAR growth expected to increase by 13.9 percent year on year, led by both occupancy and rate growth. This is coming off weaker results in 2011. Tokyo achieved occupancy of 71.5 percent (-9.7 percent) in Q1 2011. In Q2 of 2011, the occupancy rate following the earthquake dropped by 21.1 percent before stabilizing again during the remaining last two quarters of the year. Overall in 2011, the average daily rate (ADR) declined by 6.7 percent to JPY 13,195.13. During the first quarter of 2012, occupancy grew by 11.1 percent to 79.5 percent whilst ADR remained slightly below the previous year (-0.3 percent).
Looking forward, whilst occupancy will continue to be positive in 2013, RevPAR will be driven mainly by ADR growth. The future performance of hotels will be determined by the ability of the Japanese economy to overcome the challenges coming from the reconstruction in the regions affected by the tsunami and the global economic environment.
Quarterly Occupancy Q1 2011 to Q3 2012F
Source: STR Global
Barcelona’s outlook shows only slight changes in performance for this and next year. This follows stronger growth in 2011, when Barcelona saw RevPAR performance grow by 8.5 percent to €81.68. Growth was led by increased occupancy (+4.5 percent) and rate (+3.8 percent). Whilst the economic forecast in the Euro zone remains uncertain, our forecast predicts that RevPAR will decline (-0.7 percent) in 2012 before recovering in 2013 (+0.8 percent). In 2012 RevPAR is predicted to be led by decreasing occupancy (-1.0 percent), whilst in 2013 rate and occupancy are expected to stay almost flat against 2012. The positive outlook in 2013 is boosted by MICE business, which is expected to host several high-profile events in Barcelona. This will be a relief from less optimistic economic news, according to the Tourism Economics forecast issued in April, with GDP in Spain expected to contract by 1.7 percent in 2012 and further declines in 2013 by 1.5 percent.
2-year annual outlook RevPAR growth
Source: STR Global
STR Global Hotel Market Forecast reports are available quarterly across 42 markets in Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East.
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