How Bad Will It Get for Airlines When Coronavirus Hits the U.S.?
The coronavirus scare has brought out some of the worst of the American mentality, promoting the idea that if we close our borders to travelers from foreign lands, like China, we can insulate ourselves from a fast-moving global virus. Even as outbreaks spread to friendly democracies, such as South Korea and Italy, we assume we can save Americans by reducing air links, or instituting quarantines.
But what happens when the virus reaches the United States in big numbers? On Tuesday, federal health experts predicted it soon will spread here, asking hospitals, employers and schools to prepare. As people panic, it could cripple U.S. commerce.
Airlines will take the brunt of it. So far, U.S. carriers have made only tactical cuts, reducing Asia flights and deploying wide-body jets to the most popular short-haul markets, including Las Vegas, Cancun, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Orlando. In recent years, U.S. airline executives have bragged about near limitless North American demand, so short term, this may boost profits, not reduce them. But this strategy only works as long travelers perceive limited risk for short-haul flights.
