Human Behaviour After COVID-19
Exponential Weekly Investor Letter: Macroeconomic Update - By Steven McClurg
There is hope and an expectation that lives will return to normal after the quarantines loosen and "non-essential" businesses are allowed to open in the US and globally. Market participants believe that a $2 trillion dollar aid package is enough to float small and large businesses, as well as the 20%+ who are now unemployed — not to mention freelancers who do not qualify for unemployment and many who are underemployed. In fact, the markets continue to rally on hope and news that the COVID-19 curve is flattening and a vaccine is close.
Hope is good for mankind, for peace of mind, and should be spread to all humans. Hope is essential for building a better world. Unfortunately, hope is not a great investment strategy.
After the Curve
The last two months have created xenophobia and fear of any and all other humans. The Government's medical advice is to wear masks and stay six feet apart (except for the WHO, who have consistently stated that masks will not protect you). It has become a societal norm to not gather, avoid crowded places, and stay at home. It has also become commonplace for people to call the police and cyberbully others who do not follow their own beliefs and standards on how to stay "safe".
Humans develop behavioural responses to deeply embedded fears spurred by events — be it from dangers to person, mind, or finances. After the Great Depression, an entire generation hoarded food in freezers and cellars, distrusted banks, pinned money inside their clothes, or hid money in their homes.
After being forced into a COVID-19 lockdown, many generations to follow will behave differently from this point forward.