Observations/Trends - 05/19/20

  • Through the first third of May, top line US industry metrics of occupancy and Guest Paid ADR change remain relatively consistent with prior weeks results. Occupancy remains at about the 30% level with ADR declines of a bout 40% at the national level. It is important to recognize that ADR declines are more a function of chain scale mix performance rather than that level of property level decline.
  • By rate category, Rack/bar continues to show the best resilience as weekly improvement in occupancy continues to be seen. Over the past 4 weeks, the rate of decline in Rack/bar has improved to about 50% up from the 60% declines reported a month ago. To some degree this is due to the effectiveness and strength of the brands loyalty programs, which has been a major focus for them over the past several years.
  • Additionally, OTA occupancy declines have modified as well, but as a slower rate than Rack/bar.
  • Group cancellation remain focused on the summer and early fall, less so toward the end of the year.
  • To date we have not seen any improvement in airline bookings or web search traffic.

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