Mid-Year Roundup
This is what's defining the global travel market in 2017
We're halfway through 2017 and it's already been a jam-packed news year, so we wanted to break down the trends and statistics that have been top of mind for our global team of Phocuswright analysts. This is what's defining the global travel market in 2017:
DECEMBER
Election impact. Let's start with the immediate aftermath of the U.S. presidential election. Phocuswright fielded a survey of 1,500 European travelers November 12 – 14 to gauge their sentiment around travel to the U.S. and the potential impact of the U.S. election. The results should give pause: one in five travelers in the U.K. and France and nearly one in three German travelers said they are less likely to travel to the U.S. Across all three countries, women are also significantly less likely than men to visit the U.S. – 27% vs. 19%.
Read More: Election Impact: Some European Travelers May Be Less Likely to Visit the U.S.
Will Experiences move the needle for Airbnb? If Airbnb continues its impressive growth and revenues for 2017 approach US$3 billion, Experiences would be only 1.1% of its overall business (using our rosy assumptions). Even under far more aggressive scenarios, Experiences would still account for a relatively small, single-digit share of the company's business. Only one third of Airbnb renters bought a tour or excursion on their last leisure trip, and Experiences would appeal to an even smaller subset.
Read More: The Media Loves Airbnb Trips, but Will Travelers
The fastest growing online markets: Developed online markets will grow just 15% from 2014 to 2017, compared to 61% for emerging online markets (led by APAC).
Read More: The Fastest Growing Online Markets
JANUARY
One in three U.S. rentals now in urban destinations. This is up dramatically from 13% in 2012. City rentals accounted for 18% of total rental revenue in 2015, and will rise to nearly one quarter of the U.S. private accommodation market as rentals take more demand away from hotels.
Read More: The New-Gen Renter
Five trends DMOs should know about. How and where travelers research vacation options is vital information to destination marketing organizations. This is the greatest opportunity for influence – especially for those who do not yet have a destination in mind.
Read More: 5 Trends You Need to Know About Destination Selection
An improving economy continues to provide a strong foundation for the European travel market.
View the infographic: 6 Quick Facts on the European Travel Market
FEBRUARY
Asia Pacific leads all markets in mobile booking adoption. APAC mobile bookings are projected to grow from 24% of the online travel market in 2015 to 37% in 2017.
Read More: APAC Leads all Markets in Mobile
Rental growth has surged in the past few years. Those gains will slow in 2017 and 2018, when the total private accommodations market will reach US$36.6 billion.
Read More: U.S. Private Accommodation Market to Reach $36.6B by 2018
U.S. online travel agencies continue their upward climb and have increased their share of the total travel market. OTAs' share of the online travel market reached 39% in 2016 and will slowly continue to increase to 41% by 2020, with $81.4 billion in online gross bookings.
Read More: Hotel and Mobile Boost OTA Online Bookings
MARCH
American travelers' desire to explore and get away remains unabated; growth in the 4-5% range is projected through 2020, bringing the total travel market to $403.3 billion that year.
View the infographic: 6 Quick Facts on U.S. Online Travel
China's airlines lag far behind OTAs in the technology department. But after treating web- and then mobile-based distribution as an afterthought, these state-owned behemoths have begun to take digital distribution seriously. They're growing their in-house mobile teams, and optimization of user experience and marketing are now strategic priorities.
Read More: Chinese Airlines Get Serious About Direct Bookings
The defining debate in online travel over the past two years: Hotels' battle for the customer and direct booking amid tough competition and skyrocketing growth of OTAs.
Read More: This One Chart Explains the Hotel Loyalty-vs.-OTA Problem
Do pivots work? TRIP's shift to metasearch and booking seems great in theory, but consumers just aren't having it – at least not yet.
Read More: The Trouble with TRIP
APRIL
In the U.S., online will continue to outpace the market through 2020, but the growth gap is narrowing as the channel approaches dominance. By 2020, online channels (including mobile) will account for 49% of the total.
Read More: U.S. Market Booking Channels Shifting
Airbnb is smoking its competitors on repeat booking with its hip brand, unique market positioning and devoted customer base. Airbnb's desktop repeat booking rate in 1H16 was roughly five times that of Booking.com and Expedia, and roughly three times that of the top hotel brands.
Read More: In Online Travel, Repeat Bookers Are Elusive, Except for Airbnb
For Southeast Asian travelers, the most common motivators when planning a leisure trip are a desire to take a break, spending time with loved ones, and available vacation time away from work.
Read More: Get Inside the Mind of Southeast Asian Travelers
MAY
Are tours and activities the next big opportunity in online travel? We think so. But not for the reasons most might think.
Read More: The Real Revolution in Tours & Activities
The OTAs are crushing it. They are growing much faster than the U.S. hotel market. In fact, 2016 was the first year when OTA lodging bookings in the U.S. exceeded total hotel website gross bookings. And they're growing even faster overseas in the more fragmented hotel markets of Europe, Asia and elsewhere.
Read More: Hotels vs. the (OTA) World - What's Really at Stake as Hotels Take on Distributors
JUNE
The mobile traveler population has been growing each year as more travelers own smartphones and use them to plan and book travel. Today, two in three U.S. travelers have shopped or booked either air or hotel on a mobile device (smartphone or tablet).
Read More: In Mobile Travel, Comfort Leads to Confidence in Booking
Use of messaging apps is increasing among travelers overall. But the numbers vary greatly across demographics, specific apps and use cases.
Read More: Are U.S. Travelers Embracing Chat & Messaging?
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Eugene Ko
Sr. Manager, Marketing and Communications
+1 646 380-6273
Phocuswright
