US: Modest RevPAR increases expected in 2012 and 2013
"2012 may prove to be challenging for the U.S. hotel industry," said Randy Smith, co-founder and chairman at STR. "There are a number of issues that will confront the industry and overall economy this year. We believe that given how well the hotel industry did during 2011, it will be difficult in 2012 to show significant growth. However, we remain optimistic the industry will continue to report modest increases in 2012."
Supply in 2012 is expected to rise 0.8 percent and demand is projected to increase 1.3 percent.
"The economic environment remains turbulent as we move into 2012," said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics. "While the U.S. economy is showing signs of sustained growth, the recession in Europe and a slowdown in emerging markets will dampen lodging performance. Given the strong room demand experienced in the past two years, we expect modest demand growth of 1.3 percent, while rates continue their long climb back to prior peaks with growth of 3.8 percent."
The forecast for 2013 includes:
- a 0.5-percent increase in occupancy to 60.7 percent;
- a 4.4-percent rise in ADR to US$110.06;
- and a 4.9-percent growth in RevPAR to US$66.81
In 2013 supply (+1.4 percent) and demand (+2.0 percent) are both expected to report growth.