Industry Update
Performance19 September 2016

Hotel Profit Forecasts Revised Down Across Europe And MENA Markets

Key European And Mena Market Profitability Forecasts Now Available Exclusively From E-forecasting And Hotstats

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TRI Hospitality Consulting

Drilling down to the all-important metric of gross operating profit, or GOPPAR for short, findings in the latest Hotel Market Profitability Forecast Reports show that the profit projections are less optimistic for some key destinations during the forecast horizon according to the latest quarterly forecast data released by e-forecasting and HotStats.

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"While we continue to see growth in total revenue for many markets, with our latest forecast release we have noted smaller increases in year over year total revenue growth, based mainly on drivers such as changes in demand from visitor-feeding countries as well as domestic costs such as labor and energy," commented Maria Sogard, CEO of e-forecasting.com. "In the Provincial UK, our 2016 outlook for GOPPAR is set for 8.1% growth. Provincial UK GOPPAR is expected to slow to 6.1% in 2018 in this important measure of hotel success. At the other end of the spectrum, in Dubai, we continue to see significant profit declines while the market continues to adjust to oversupply, with 2016 GOPPAR forecast down 23.2%, with decreases of 27.6% and 8.7% in 2017 and 2018, respectively." Hotel Market Profitability Forecasts are currently available for the following markets: Abu Dhabi, Amsterdam, Berlin, Dubai, Frankfurt, London, Munich, Newcastle, Paris, Provincial UK, Vienna and country-wide reports on Germany and the United Kingdom. The Hotel Market Profitability Forecast reports are the first of their type to present a full picture of the health of the hotel industry with a focus on not just occupancy, average room rate (ARR), rooms revenue per available room (RevPAR), but also on total revenue per available room (TRevPAR) and GOPPAR.

The Hotel Market Profitability Forecasts are real-time quarterly profitability forecasts covering major markets across the UK, Europe, Middle East and North Africa. Each Quarterly Forecast includes predictions for 24 months, 8 quarters and three years out for each of the key hotel performance metrics. Annual subscription is available for £1,500 + VAT for 4 quarterly reports for one single market or you can purchase one report for one single market for £850 + VAT. The next issues reporting on Quarter 3 2015 will be released the first week of November. Please contact [email protected] or [email protected] to purchase a report or subscription or should you have any questions.

In addition to reporting on forecasts of the hotel metrics of occupancy, ARR, RevPAR, TRevPAR and GOPPAR, the Quarterly Hotel Market Profitability Forecasts also provide in-depth analysis of the economic environment and its relation to the forecast for each hotel market. This additional analysis includes country-wide hotel industry pulse (HIP) and hotel industry leading indicator (HIL) monthly readings, probabilities of an upcoming recession in the hotel industry, the country's monthly GDP, a foreign travel leading indicator specific to each market, labour market conditions, inflation, exchange and interest rates, energy prices and other special events.

About e-forecasting.com

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customised solutions for what's next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients' competitive advantage. For more information visit www.e-forecasting.com

About HotStats

HotStats provides a unique profit-and-loss benchmarking service to hoteliers from across the globe that enables monthly comparison of hotels' performance against competitors. It is distinguished by the fact that it maintains in excess of 500 key performance metrics covering 70 areas of hotel revenue, cost, profit and statistics, providing far deeper insight into the hotel operation than any other tool. The HotStats database totals millions of hotel rooms worldwide. For more information, visit www.hotstats.com.

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