Source: e-forecasting.com

Durham, New Hampshire USA – Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in September according to the latest reading of the Hotels' future business conditions (HIL) indicator. e−forecasting.com's HIL, a composite predictive analytic that gauges future monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry, increased by 0.1% in September to 135, following an increase of 0.1% in August. The index is set to equal 100 in 2010.

"The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 9.7% in September, up from 7.4% in August," said Maria Sogard, CEO at e­forecasting.com. "As a result, the probability that the U.S. Hotel Industry will be in the expansion phase of its business cycle in the near-term marked 90.3% in September, lower than August's reading of 92.6%," Maria added.

Three of the forward looking indicators of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in September: Foreign Demand; New Orders, and Vacation Barometer. Six indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL's change in September: Jobs Market; Hotel Worker Hours; Hotel Profitability; Yield Curve; Oil Prices, and Housing Activity.

"The six month annualized smoothed growth rate of HIL, a long-range growth predictive analytic which confirms the underlying cyclical business trend for US hoteliers, posted a positive rate of 2.9% in September, compared to a 30-year average annual growth rate of 2%," said Evangelos Simos, professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire and series editor for predictive analytics databases at e-forecasting .com.

About HIP

The Hotel Industry Pulse, or HIP for short, is a hotel industry indicator that was created to fill the void of a real-time monthly indicator for the hotel industry that captures current conditions. The indicator provides useful information about the timing and degree of the industry"s link with the US business cycle for the last four decades. Simply put, it tracks monthly overall business conditions in the industry, like an industry GDP, and points in a timely way to the changes in direction from growth to recession or vice versa. The composite indicator is made with the following components: revenues from consumers staying at hotels and motels adjusted for inflation, room occupancy rate and hotel employment, along with other key economic factors which influence hotel business activity.

About e-forecasting.com

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what"s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients" competitive advantage.

Maria Simos Sogard
Chief Executive Officer
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