Less than a month into 2018, the eight-year growth cycle in the lodging industry lumbers on. While RevPAR performance in the third quarter of 2017 appeared to take a breather, the combined impacts of improving economic fundamentals and the regional increase in performance associated with the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma resulted in a stronger fourth quarter, driving home a solid finish for the year. Going forward, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is reportedly providing a boost in business and consumer sentiment, and is expected to contribute to GDP growth in 2018.

Growth in lodging demand continues to be a tale of two travelers. The leisure transient segment, which provided a meaningful tailwind for demand this cycle, continues to drive room-night demand. These travelers, however, tend to be relatively price sensitive and are more likely to shop around for a compelling price. Inbound international travel, an important source of leisure demand, declined in the first and second quarter of 2017, though the weakening US Dollar may help to offset that decline going forward. Conversely, the corporate transient segment (and its counterpart, group travel), largely considered the bread and butter business for many hotels, continues to exhibit anemic growth. The sluggishness of these two demand segments has been cited as contributing to the slower growth in ADR in the late stages of the current recovery, even as occupancy levels exceed 35-year records.

Increase in supply, long considered the Achilles heel for industry growth cycles, has been relatively tame during this recovery. While occupancies in 2017 continued to reach record levels, this can be attributed in part to restraint in supply growth.

Looking ahead to 2018, underlying macroeconomic and industry fundamentals are expected to remain strong. Supply growth is expected to reach the long-term average, while demand growth is anticipated to continue to support record occupancy levels. Strength in consumer spending and the potential for an uptick in corporate transient demand are anticipated to drive a slight uptick in ADR growth compared to last year, ultimately resulting in the ninth straight year of RevPAR growth, approaching the record for the longest consecutive quarterly growth cycle in over 30 years.

About PwC US

PwC US helps organizations and individuals create the value they're looking for. We're a member of the PwC network of firms in 157 countries with more than 195,000 people. We're committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. Tell us what matters to you and find out more by visiting us at www.pwc.com/US. PwC refers to the US member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.

Laura Schooler
PwC US
+1-646-471-3229
PwC