World Travel Market, IPK Forum

  • Rolf Freitag, Chairman, IPK International:Key Conclusions of the Pisa Forum, 2002-2003
  • Francesco Frangialli, Secretary General, World Tourism Organization:World Inbound Travel Scenario, 2002
  • William S Norman, President and CEO, Travel Industry Association of America:US Travel and Tourism - How Travellers and the Industry are Responding to Unprecedented Challenge and Change
  • Douglas B Baker, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Service Industries, Tourism and Finance, US Department of Commerce:New Forecasts and Trends for US Outbound and Inbound Travel
  • Germán Porras, President, European Travel Commission:Two Years of Stagnation in European Tourism - A New Global Trend?
  • Peter de Jong, President and CEO, Pacific Asia Travel Association:Pacific Asia - The New Engine of Global Tourism Growth

Rolf D Freitag
Chairman
IPK International
INTRODUCTION TO IPK'S PISA FORUM

For the ninth consecutive year IPK International - the World Travel Monitor Company - together with its partners, WTO, ETC, PATA, TIA and the US DOC, invited some 50 travel and tourism experts from more than 30 countries to Pisa, from 6-9 November, for two days of discussions on global tourism trends.

The discussions were based on the findings of more than 500,000 representative interviews in some 60 travel source countries in Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific concerning outbound travel in the first eight months of 2002.

Twelve months ago, this same group of international experts, representing both the public and private sectors, forecast that international tourism would decline by only 1% in 2001 over 2000's level, despite the events of 11 September and the global economic downturn. This forecast has since been proved correct - the final results confirmed by the World Tourism Organization show a 0.6% decrease in international arrivals last year.

Last week's Pisa Forum concluded that 2002 would show a 1% increase worldwide, taking the total number of arrivals to at least the same level as that achieved in the record year of 2000. This forecast takes into account the impact of 11 September 2001, as well as the more recent terrorist attacks in Djerba, Bali and Moscow.

While some major markets - such as the USA, Japan and Germany - have continued to suffer from the impact of a depressed economy, emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Asia have shown remarkable growth in outbound travel. For 2003, the IPK Forum predicts a return to pre-11 September growth levels for world travel and tourism of some 2-3%, and this should progressively improve - to 3-4% in 2004.

The Pisa Forum assessed the tourism performance of all the major source markets and destinations around the world in 2002 and their prospects for 2003. In addition, it looked at the changing pattern of demand for travel and discussed whether the new trends identified are temporary, or whether they reflect a more significant change in the structure of global travel and tourism demand that has implications for destinations and other suppliers in the future.

IPK also shared some of the preliminary results of its Generation project, which analyses the impact of ageing populations on international travel and tourism demand over the next 20 years.

For further information, contact IPK at: [email protected]

Francesco Frangialli
Secretary General
World Tourism Organization (WTO)
WORLD INBOUND TRAVEL SCENARIO, 2002

In 2001 international arrivals declined by 0.6%, the first year of negative growth since 1982. Does this mean that the 'good times' are over? Not necessarily. Had it not been for the sizeable increase in tourist arrivals witnessed in 2000, the results for 2001 would have been in line with the annual trend observed over the past decade.

Tourism enjoyed exceptional years in 2000 and 2001. In 2000, international tourism grew by 45 million arrivals, registering a growth level rarely seen before. The decline in late 2001 and most of 2002 requires us to re-examine the patterns of demand, the flexibility of tourism supply and the marketing know-how of destinations. Furthermore, we need to reaffirm our commitment to working together to try to alleviate the negative impacts of recent events on tourism, to heal where pain has already been caused, and to ensure that future tourism development is sustainable in economic, social and ecological terms.

As of November 2002, preliminary results from different regions show that Northern Europe has suffered the biggest decline in tourist arrivals in Europe. The other sub-regions have been more successful, especially the Mediterranean countries and 'new' destinations such as Turkey, Croatia and Bulgaria.

2002 has not been a good year for the Americas, especially the USA, which is currently down around -13%. The situation is somewhat better in the Caribbean and Central America, with the latter expecting a slight increase over 2001's level.

China has continued to show strong growth in 2002 (+10%) and good increases have also been registered by Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam. However, the impact of the Bali tragedy on the region's tourism remains to be seen.

Inbound travel to Africa, with the notable exception of South Africa, has been hit heavily by 11 September since it is so dependent on airline traffic. Some destinations have even suffered double-digit declines, albeit from a low base. Heightened security concerns have negatively affected demand for travel from traditional Western source markets to North Africa and the Middle East.

The unfavourable situation does not necessarily imply there will be a prolonged slump in international tourism activity. The demand potential for travel remains strong and some destinations that are perceived as being 'protected' are showing renewed strong growth. WTO forecasts that 2002 will close with a slight increase in arrivals and receipts or, at worst, stagnation compared with 2001.

For further information, contact Rok Klancnik at: [email protected]

William S Norman
President and Chief Executive Officer
Travel Industry Association of America (TIA)
US TRAVEL AND TOURISM - HOW TRAVELLERS AND THE INDUSTRY ARE RESPONDING TO UNPRECEDENTED CHALLENGE AND CHANGE

Economic recession and 11 September have had a major impact on US travel. Business travel will decline more than 4% this year. Leisure travel will be up just 2%. Total travel expenditures, which declined nearly 6% in 2001, will not recover until 2004. Why? US travellers have altered their behaviour and traditional travel patterns.

Americans went back to the basics. They are travelling more domestically and closer to home. They are travelling more by car and less by air. They are travelling with family members and visiting heritage, cultural, and outdoor recreation sites more often. They are booking later and they are spending less.

The impact of these changing patterns has been uneven. Air carriers and urban business hotels in gateway cities have suffered greatly. The Atlantic and Pacific coasts experienced declines while the middle of the country saw little change. Businesses that depended on international visitors saw dramatic losses. But destinations, lodging, attractions, and cultural and heritage sites that rely on the leisure family drive market held up well. So, too, did cruises and travel by recreational vehicles. Is this a permanent change in travel patterns or is it a short-term cyclical downturn?

The industry is taking no chances. In unprecedented fashion they have formed co-operative marketing programmes and created partnerships that leverage their resources and increase their reach and impact. Many have discounted prices. Most importantly, they have taken advantage of this downward period to undertake major structural reviews of their operational practices, their staffing, their services and their marketing. In typical American fashion, the US travel industry is rethinking and reinventing its very self.

Where will it lead? Nobody knows for sure, but we forecast a stronger industry by 2004 when travel expenditures should return to year 2000 levels.

For further information, contact Dexter Koehl at: [email protected]

Douglas B Baker
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Service Industries, Tourism and Finance
US Department of Commerce
NEW FORECASTS AND TRENDS FOR US OUTBOUND AND INBOUND TRAVEL

Travel and tourism is a significant economic export engine for the United States, bringing in over US$91 billion in 2001. Travel and tourism is the top services export, and the fourth largest export overall for the country.

The forecast of international travel projects that a record 60 million international visitors will come to the USA in 2006, a 32% increase over 2001. International visitation to the USA will return to pre-11 September levels by 2004.

For US travellers going abroad, we forecast that 2002 will show a 2% decrease, but it is anticipated to surpass the 2000 levels by 2004.

The global economic slowdown and safety and security concerns are inhibiting travel worldwide. In the USA, the administration has been aggressive in addressing these difficulties to contribute towards the recovery of the travel and tourism industry.

As our homeland becomes more secure, we believe that international travellers will respond positively. Together with the Tourism Policy Council, the foreign commercial service officers have conveyed the numerous enhanced safety and security measures undertaken by the US Government to potential international visitors.

Additionally, the Department of Commerce has undertaken a special Tourism Export Expansion Initiative with Japan to expand tourism trade between our countries. We have also discussed a collaborative approach between the public and private sectors that could be introduced in other key markets.

In an important sense, the attacks of 11 September did not usher in a new era but, rather, a clearer understanding of the world in which we had been living for some time.

The best message that we can convey is by carrying on with our lives. By working, by producing, we deliver a powerful message to those who would destroy our country:

"The United States of America is alive and well, and open for business!"

For further information, contact Victoria Park at: [email protected]

Germán Porras
President
European Travel Commission (ETC)
TEN YEARS OF STAGNATION IN EUROPEAN TOURISM - A NEW GLOBAL TREND?

Once again the tourism industry has proved to be one of the most resilient and dynamic sectors of the European economy.

After a decrease of -0.6% in international tourist arrivals in Europe in 2001 (compared with the record year of 2000), preliminary figures for the first six to eight months of 2002 indicate a small decrease in European inbound tourism again this year (in the region of -0.2% to -0.3%).

Travel and tourism are already part of consumer behaviour so that, even with the problems related to the global economic slowdown and terrorism, travellers are still willing to travel more. However, the pattern has changed a little. Many European countries have observed increases in domestic tourism, more travel within the same region, more travel by road and rail, more individual trips, more direct booking, and an increased use of low-cost airlines. Some of these changes are probably temporary, but others may be structural.

Regarding the supply, there are two main elements: the destinations and the industry. Among the destinations there are some losers and some winners, and their future depends largely on their ability to adapt to demand.

In the industry the effects are more visible. The airlines, in particular the American carriers, and European tour operators have been hit harder by the weakness of the outbound markets, later booking, the tendency towards shorter length of stay, and cost-cutting on business trips. The industry has to adapt to these new facts. The demand is still there.

European destinations and the European travel and tourism industry are world leaders in inbound and outbound tourism. They have shown their capacity to change in the past, and they will know how to respond to the new challenges in order to remain the world's number one destination and first outbound market.

For further information, contact Lisa Davies at: [email protected]

Peter de Jong
President & CEO
Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)
PACIFIC ASIA - THE NEW ENGINE OF GLOBAL TOURISM GROWTH

Pacific Asia (the region representing PATA's member countries, including North America and Mexico) is the powerful new engine of global tourism growth.

Consider the following: Pacific Asia is the world's fastest-growing region, demographically and economically. It already has two-thirds of the world's population.

Travellers to the PATA region spend over US$170 billion annually - around 40% of global tourism receipts. High GDP performances in China (PRC), India and Korea (ROK) suggest this trend will continue.

Despite 2001 and 2002 being trying times for tourism, the Pacific Asia region - for the most part - is still doing well.

Northeast and Southeast Asia are driving the region's growth - both as destinations and as markets.

During 2001, almost 65% of international visitor arrivals in Northeast Asia came from within Northeast & Southeast Asia. For destinations within Southeast Asia the proportion was over 64%.

In 2001 international visitor arrivals in Northeast Asia increased by 3%, and in Southeast Asia by 5.2%.

In the first eight months of 2002 foreign arrivals in China (PRC) increased by more than 16%. The average monthly inbound figure is now over one million. Similar double-digit growth rates can also be seen for Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR.

Arrivals in Thailand in the first seven months of this year are up 6%. Vietnam is up 10%. International arrivals into Cambodia are up 8%.

Outbound traffic from Korea (ROK) is up more than 16% this year to date.

Both as a destination and as a market, the tourism scales are dipping increasingly in favour of the PATA region.

For further information, contact: Ken Scott at [email protected]