LARC 1Q-2022 U.S. Lodging Industry Outlook

We will walk through our current outlook and discuss some highlights of our U.S. Market forecasts.

LARC has released its latest Market Intelligence Reports for 44 markets under current coverage and the U.S. overall.

LARC expects U.S. RevPAR to increase by 18.4% in 2022, driven by a 4.4% increase in occupancy and a 13.4% increase in average daily rate. LARC also anticipates U.S. Hotel EBITDA to grow by almost 60% and hotel values to increase 12% in 2022. We continue to forecast ADR and hotel values to recover to 2019 levels in 2022, while RevPAR and Hotel EBITDA will reach 2019 levels in 2023 and occupancy stabilizes slightly below 2019 levels by 2023.

Our 2022 outlook for demand declined driven by the Omicron variant and its 1Q-2022 impact. However, that decline was offset by a lower supply growth outlook and an improvement in ADR growth, resulting in 2022 RevPAR that is almost unchanged from a quarter ago.

For more detail on our current U.S. industry forecast and color on some of the U.S. cities we expect to be the best and worst performing markets, click here.

On Thursday March 10, 2022 at 3:00 pm EST, we will be hosting a webinar to walk through our methodology, provide high-level key takeaways from our forecasts and answer any questions you may have. Please contact us if you are interested in learning more about LARC's industry-leading Market Intelligence capabilities.

Better Market Intelligence

LARC's Market Intelligence Reports offer more than industry-leading market information and data, they include short-term and long-term forecasts for the following key outputs on a market-wide basis, updated quarterly:

  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Occupancy
  • ADR
  • RevPAR
  • Expense growth
  • EBITDA growth
  • Cap Rates
  • Property value growth

LARC's reports provide transparent predictive modeling and back-testing to help you get comfortable that our forecasts are as accurate as possible. Additionally, LARC reports offer transparency related to our model drivers and sensitivity tables on the most influential variables. In these uncertain times, the importance of more accurate and more transparent forecasting is even greater than before. We believe that better lodging forecasting leads to better business decisions.

This webinar is hosted by Lodging Analytics Research & Consulting, Inc

For more information please contact Ryan Meliker

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