Bali Set To Host 18.2 Million Visitors In 2020, More Than 4 Times Its Population
Over the next three years, total visitor numbers to Bali are expected to increase by 26.3%, from 14.4 million in 2017 to 18.2 million in 2020, according to a major new report Short-Term Forecasts of Visitor Arrivals in Bali, 2018-2020, released today by Hotel Investment Strategies, a New York-based hotel investment advisory firm with a representative office in Jakarta.
The forecasts are not likely to meet the target of 8 million foreign visitors by 2019 set by Bali's tourism industry. Bali's tourism industry is aiming to attract 40% of Indonesia's total foreign tourist arrival target in 2019 but needs the assistance of the central government support to achieve this ambitious goal. "There is about a 17% probability that the 8 million target could be reached", says, Mr. Ross Woods, the Founder & CEO of Hotel Investment Strategies.
"Not everyone understands the concept of forecasting. It tends to get mixed up with goal setting. There is nothing wrong with a target of 8 million international visitors, but our forecast of 6.8 million international visitors in 2019 represents the most likely outcome given past trends and current information. "
According to the Report, China will remain Bali's largest international source market, followed by Australia and India. Despite the stranding and evacuation of thousands of Chinese tourists in November and December 2017 due to the activity from the Volcano Mt. Agung, Chinese tourists surpassed Australian tourists to become Bali's biggest source market in 2017. Lion Air is currently opening 20 new routes between China and Indonesia as part of the group's strategy to deliver 2.5 million foreign tourists to Indonesia. China was ranked # 6 in 2007 as a major source market for Bali, but it has ascended to the #1 position and is unlikely to surrender this position for a long time.
Between 2017 and 2020 inbound visitor arrivals to Bali from ASEAN countries are expected to grow by 47% from 428,000 in 2017 to 629,000 in 2020. Over the next three years, total visitor numbers from Asia-Pacific countries are expected to increase by 20.7% from 3.5 million in 2017 to 4.3 million in 2020.
Short-Term Forecasts of Visitor Arrivals in Bali, 2018-2020 is available to download from Hotel Investment Strategies' website: