Where do we go from here? A look at the uncertain future ahead
First and foremost, the coronavirus crisis is a human tragedy. Our thoughts and concerns are with all of those affected, as well as front-line workers and colleagues facing uncertain futures. While caring for the sick and reducing community spread are the top priorities, now is also the time to look ahead and start planning for the tough road ahead.
"The near-term is essential but don't lose focus on the longer term. It may sound impossible for management teams that are already working 18-hour days, but too few are dedicating the needed time and effort to responses focused on the longer term." - McKinsey on the business challenges ahead
None of us knows how this will play out. But one thing is for sure: travel is a resilient industry. The bounce-back will definitely happen. It's just a question of when - and how to prepare for the eventual recovery.
To help you navigate the planning process for what's ahead, we've pulled together expert perspectives on different scenarios, as well as some tips when planning for each. As is always the case, filter these through the lens of your home country's unique situation. Adapt your strategy according to the current demand pattern, travel restrictions and forward-looking booking trends.
Case studies
We're clearly in unprecedented territory. There has never been a moment where travel demand has zeroed out in several regions at a time. The past isn't necessarily the best indicator of future performance. Even so, it can be helpful to look at the past downturns and health events to get some baselines. Unless otherwise noted, the STR data below is from the United States.
Global financial crisis: This is perhaps the best corollary, in the sense that it was a global crisis that rippled throughout economies everywhere. As you can see here, courtesy of STR, it took 19 months for ADR to bottom out and another 37 months for it to recover fully.
