First and foremost, all of us at Lodging Analytics Research & Consulting (LARC) hope that you are staying safe and healthy. While the COVID-19 pandemic's most significant impact is on the lives that have been lost, there is no doubt that the impact to the global and U.S. economies is pronounced and likely to have life-altering effects on millions of healthy Americans. Our thoughts are with each of you as we fight this battle, with the knowledge and conviction that we will get through this, and hopefully, in the coming months, we will be focused on the pace of economic recovery without the further concern of additional loss of life. Until such time, please be safe and stay healthy.

In consideration of the global occurrences, LARC has updated our U.S. Lodging Industry Outlook. While there is no doubt that the lodging industry will be one of the industries hardest hit by the pandemic and consequent economic downturn, it is and will remain, extremely difficult to quantify the future impact. The constantly, and unpredictably, changing underlying economic outlook makes it highly speculative to forecast lodging industry performance in 2020 or even 2021, with any conviction at this point. The reality is that given the current state of the world, no one knows what RevPAR will look like in 2020 or even the second quarter; to be clear, we do not claim to be any different. However, with this in mind, we offer three scenarios in our revised U.S. Lodging Industry Outlook, which provides a range of performance for the path forward of the industry in relation to changes in Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, Hotel EBITDA and Hotel Values:

  1. Our Base Case, including a Downturn
  2. A Deeper Downturn Scenario
  3. A Shallower Downturn Scenario

Click the button below for our updated U.S. Lodging Outlook.

Download Your Industry Outlook Update Now

Ryan Meliker
President
Lodging Analytics Research & Consulting, Inc

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