Colliers, a leading diversified professional services and investment management company, released its 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Report, titled "Stability Through Uncertainty." The report provides a comprehensive look at commercial real estate market trends across all major asset classes, identifying opportunities and challenges in the year ahead.

The U.S. commercial real estate market is entering 2026 with renewed momentum, as stabilizing fundamentals, easing financial conditions, strengthening occupier demand, and rising investor confidence set the stage for a long-awaited reset. After several years of volatility driven by inflation, policy shifts, and evolving workforce dynamics, the sector is poised for more consistent growth.

Key Takeaways:

  • Capital Markets Rebound: Market conditions are improving, as pricing stabilizes, investors return, and transaction volume is set to grow 15 – 20% in 2026.
  • Office Bottoming Out: Vacancy is expected to fall from its peak in 2025 to below 18% by the end of 2026, driven by rising demand and the removal of obsolete inventory as it is converted to other uses.
  • Industrial Moves Towards Equilibrium: Construction is down 62% since 2022, while demand rises across logistics, manufacturing, data centers, and R&D. Vacancy is likely to peak near 7.6%, indicating a move towards equilibrium.
  • Retail Resilience: Disciplined development and strong tenant expansion activity keep supply tight; 2026 construction is anticipated to drop 37%, supporting ~1.5% rent growth.
  • Multifamily Momentum: Strong renter demand and high home prices drive occupancy gains in 2026 setting the stage for improving rent growth in 2027 and 2028.
  • Data Centers Surge Amid AI Boom: Driven by rapid enterprise AI adoption, vacancies remain near historic lows as power constraints and community opposition slow the pace of new development.
  • Healthcare Transformation: Decentralized care boosts demand for MOBs, outpatient, and ambulatory facilities, as providers move facilities closer to patients. Expanded medical office buildings lead to occupancy of 92.5% in 2025.
  • Life Sciences Recovery: Stabilizing valuations, onshoring, and a pullback in speculative development are creating favorable leasing conditions in key hubs, paving the way for potential vacancy recovery in 2026.
  • Hospitality Sees Upscale Demand: High-income travelers drive luxury and upscale demand. Supply is anticipated to grow modestly (1.3%) despite rising operational costs.

2026 marks a turning point for U.S. commercial real estate,” said. After years of navigating volatility, the industry is entering a period defined by greater clarity, confidence, and opportunity. Investor sentiment is strengthening, occupier demand is broadening, and disciplined development is reshaping supply. Together these dynamics signal not just recovery, but the beginning of a more resilient and adaptive cycle that positions the sector for long term growth.  Steig Seaward, Senior Director, National Research at Colliers

Across all property types, the U.S. landscape is characterized by stronger fundamentals, healthier supply demand balance, and a clearer path forward. Investors, occupiers, and developers are preparing to capitalize on a more stable environment shaped by long term demographic, technological, and consumer shifts.