Smith Travel Research Announces Revised 2001 U.S. Lodging Industry Forecast

Full-year 2001 U.S. industry occupancy is forecast at 60.7%, down 4.7 percent from 63.7 percent achieved in full-year 2000. Average daily room rate in 2001 is expected to be $86.41, an increase of 0.5 percent over 2000. Revenue per available room for the year is forecast to be down 4.3 percent from full-year 2000.

The 2001 forecast incorporates the following assumptions for the final four months of 2001:

• Hotel room supply growth will slow to just over 2 percent
• Demand (rooms sold) will decline about 6 percent per month
• Occupancy will fall about 8 percent per month
• Revenue per available room will decrease some 10 percent per month

Major factors influencing the assumptions are the anticipated weakening of the U.S. economy and the disruption in travel, both resulting primarily from the terrorist acts of September 11 against the United States.

"In developing our 2001 forecast revisions, we reviewed the operating environment of 1990 - 91 and the impact of the Gulf War on U.S. lodging industry performance", said Mark Lomanno, President of Smith Travel Research. "We believe a weaker U.S. economy and an erosion of consumer confidence will negatively impact U.S. lodging industry performance for the balance of 2001. We anticipate improvement in 2002, based largely on the pace of economic recovery in the United States."

Smith Travel Research is recognized as the preeminent provider of lodging industry performance tracking and benchmarking.