The Travel And Tourism Industry Hammered Hard In Wake Of September 11th Attack

In addition, a new study just released estimates that $76.7 billion in traveler spending will be lost over the next 16 months with 2 million jobs being lost at hotels, rental car agencies, convention centers, theme parks, restaurants, retail and travel agencies.

The TBR/WTTC Index provides a comprehensive view of changes in the travel and tourism industry by combining nine key economic performance variables into a statistically reliable monthly index number. Comparisons with other periods of stress provide insight into the significance of the September 2001 fall. For example, during the 1990-91 national recession, and the associated adverse impact of the Gulf War on travel, the TBR Index declined 10 percent over an 11-month period. The largest single monthly decline during that period amounted to only 2.8 percent in October 1990. Data contained in the TBR Index have been carefully analyzed back to 1987.

Shown in the brief table below are the relevant percentage changes in the U.S. and TBR/WTTC Indexes of Leading Economic Indicators for the most recent period.

Percentage Change From:

Index / Previous Month / 12 Months Ago

U.S. / -0.5% / -0.7%

TBR / -8.4 / -11.3

"In analyzing the rates of change in these two indexes, it is important to keep in mind that both the U.S. economy and the travel and tourism industry had begun to show signs of weakening economic momentum in the late summer," notes Dr. James Howell, economist and President of the Boston-based Howell Group. "To that end, the serious adverse impacts of September 11th hit the economy at a most vulnerable moment -- timing alone contributed to an acceleration in the decline in both the economy and the industry."

The Most Impacted Sectors

A careful review of the month-to-month changes across the nine indicators represented in the TBR Index shows that all the sectors of travel and tourism have been effected. As indicated below, hotels, airlines, car rentals, restaurants, and travel agents, are all showing weak performances. The eight indicators that declined are:

• Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rates
• Hotel/Motel Room Revenue
• Revenue Passenger Miles
• Employment in Air Transportation and Transportation Service Industries
• Rental Car Travel and Mileage per-day Index
• Total Travel Agent Sales
• Retail Sales in Eating and Drinking Establishments
• Consumer Confidence Index

For the one remaining indicator, Personal Consumption Expenditure for Travel and Related Items, the data was unchanged from the previous month. The most significant declines were:

Indicator / Percent Decline in September

Hotel/Motel Revenue / 19.4%

Consumer Confidence / 14.9

Hotel/Motel Occupancy / 10.2

Travel Agent Sales / 8.9

Recovery in the Travel and Tourism Industry

The behavior of the TBR/WTTC Index over the September period provides considerable insight into the sensitivity of the travel and tourism industry to external shocks. When thinking about the industry's recovery, it is also helpful to examine the past. Following the 1990-91 national recession, it took approximately one additional year for the travel and tourism industry to recover. This may be explained in part by the fact that the rebound in consumer confidence followed a most uneven pattern, involving sharp up-down swings lasting until the end of 1993. Similarly today, weak consumer confidence coupled with the uncertainty of safety as well as economic uncertainty, indicates that the recovery for the industry may take even longer than expected. To that end, TBR continues to support an economic stimulus package that addresses the needs of the travel and tourism industry and advocates action that will encourage people to travel now.

"The best way to help the industry, its 18 million employees and the economy in general, is to get people traveling again," notes Jonathan Tisch, Chairman and CEO of Loews Hotels and Chairman of the Travel Business Roundtable. "We believe this would be accomplished by temporary measures, including restoration of the business meal and entertainment tax deduction to 100 percent, restoration of spousal travel, and personal travel tax credits."

The Travel Business Roundtable is a CEO-based organization representing all sectors of the travel and tourism industry. In addition to the major airlines, car rental companies, travel management agencies, hotel chains, TBR's membership roster also includes companies such as The Coca-Cola Company, USA Today, the Taubman Company, and the International Council of Shopping Centers, demonstrating the broad scope and diversity the industry represents. In 2000, travel and tourism was the nation's third largest retail industry and second largest employer with more than 18 million Americans employed directly or indirectly in travel and tourism.

Reflecting of the important global aspects of the travel industry TBR has formed a strategic affiliation with The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) -- the global business leaders' forum for Travel & Tourism. Its members are chief executives from all sectors of industry, including accommodation, catering, entertainment, recreation, transportation and other travel-related services.

Founded in April 1990, WTTC policies are set and implemented by a Member Executive Committee, a President and a small staff in London, with representative offices in North & South America, Asia/Pacific and Europe.