STR Weekly Insights: 27 April – 3 May 2025

All financial figures in U.S. dollar constant currency.

Highlights

• Strong start, weak finish for U.S. RevPAR
• U.S. Top 25 Markets and Group demand lead growth
• Strong RevPAR growth returns globally

Up and down week, Passover comp, net RevPAR gain

U.S. revenue per available room (RevPAR) advanced 4.1% in the week ending 3 May. An easy year-over-year comp to Passover lifted gains early in the week. Both occupancy and average daily rate (ADR) contributed to the growth, which averaged 11.1% Sunday through Tuesday. Last year, Passover ended on Tuesday.

For the rest of the week, Wednesday and Thursday saw modest gains (+3.3%) while the weekend declined 2.1%. The Top 25 Markets played a significant role in the roller coaster performance. Top 25 Market RevPAR during the first three days increased 16.3% followed by a 4.3% gain Wednesday and Thursday and a 4.5% decline on the weekend.

It was a slower week in Las Vegas, especially the weekend, which had a significant impact on the Top 25 Markets. Excluding Las Vegas, Top 25 Market RevPAR was flat on the weekend.

San Francisco the clear Top 25 leader

There was considerable variability across the Top 25 Markets (T25) with RevPAR ranging from +116.0% to -19.1%. San Francisco topped the list of RevPAR gainers this week, hosting the RSA Summit a week earlier this year. Calendar shift aside, both ADR and occupancy were higher this year than during the event last year. From Monday through Wednesday, occupancy reached 94.4%, up 1.5 percentage points (ppts) versus last year’s conference with ADR rising 7% to US$428. For the full week, San Francisco occupancy was 81.9% with ADR at US$326.

Five other Top 25 Markets posted double-digit RevPAR gains:

• Orlando (+20.1%) and Miami (+16.4%) advanced by double-digits for the entire week
• Chicago, with RevPAR up 15.6% for the week, landed in high double-digits for the first three days, averaging 57.0%, followed by slowing performance over the rest of the week.
• Anaheim (Orange County) saw double-digit RevPAR increases Monday through Thursday with the end of the week continuing strong, up just over 4%.
• Minneapolis rounded out the list with double-digits gains Sunday through Thursday and a double-digit decline on Saturday.

Sixteen of the T25 saw RevPAR gains. However, three markets saw large RevPAR decreases including Las Vegas (-19.1%), New Orleans (-10.3%) and Nashville (-7.8%). Those decreases were driven in part by sharp decreases over the weekend.

Among the next 25 largest markets, there was less variability with RevPAR ranging from +29.8% to -15.5%. Pittsburgh, Fort Worth, Charleston and Fort Lauderdale all posted double-digit gains with weekends seeing the largest increases in Pittsburgh and Fort Worth, while Charleston and Fort Lauderdale experienced healthy gains all week.

Group demand returned

Group demand in Luxury and Upper Upscale hotels rebounded, rising 10.7%, benefiting from the Passover calendar shift. Transient demand also increased, up 1.4%. Group and Transient ADR increased 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively.

Across the Top 25 Markets, Group gains were even more dramatic, up 12.2%, while Transient demand held at +0.2%. ADR increased 2.8% for both Group and Transient. Top 25 Market leaders in group demand gains were San Francisco (+184.3%), St. Louis (+52.2%), Seattle (+31.3%), Orlando (+28.9%) and Minneapolis (+23.9%).

Luxury chains continue to advance

Chain scale bifurcation continued with Luxury and Upper Upscale chains advancing RevPAR the most, followed by smaller gains in Upscale and Upper Midscale. Economy chains decreased due to declines in both ADR and occupancy. The Passover impact was reflected in chain scale performance with the first three days seeing growth for all chains, except Economy. Slower gains were seen thereafter followed by declines over the weekend.

Global RevPAR strength returns

The strong global RevPAR growth seen in all of April, except in the week ending 26 April, returned with the measure advancing 9.7%. All of the top countries, except China, saw RevPAR increase.

Japan remained the leader with RevPAR rising by nearly 40%, lifted by the Golden Week holiday, which began Tuesday, April 29. India posted strong performance, however, recent military tension with Pakistan is expected to impact growth in the coming weeks. Mexico continued to see strong performance, while France and Germany posted gains impacted in part by the calendar shift.

Looking ahead

With April in the books, preliminary U.S. RevPAR for the month is predicted to be flat. One positive note is that April last year benefitted from the Total Solar Eclipse, and when removing the 16 markets in the path of totality from the estimate, April RevPAR was higher YoY.

Next week will be the first week in a while when we will have a clean calendar and more stable comparisons. STR’s Forward STAR data points to a strong rest of May and June with some softness in July. Keep in mind the further out the booking window, the less robust the booking estimate. With so much speculation on summer travel, we will stick to waiting for the data and seeing what it tells us about the future.