CEO of LARC Returns: 2026 Outlook in a K-Shaped Economy

The most accurate forecaster in hospitality is back as our first-ever repeat guest on NOT DONE. We recorded the morning before LARC dropped its June numbers — so this is the call before the Street gets it.

• The Q1 that broke everyone's model. RevPAR ran +3.8% straight through a war with Iran, a government shutdown, record gas, and tariffs. Ryan personally called the 15 biggest operators in the country to figure out why. None of them had it coming — it wasn't in the bookings, then "poof, it all showed up." His theory on what really happened is the best part.

• Consumer sentiment hit 53.3 in March & Down further in April — the lowest since 1980. Travel boomed anyway. We spend a real chunk of the episode on how both things are true at once.

• The World Cup take that'll annoy half the industry. Ryan's been saying the same thing for 18 months, and the early data is proving him right. Plus the mystery nobody can answer: why did FIFA over-block rooms across host cities, then cancel? (Know the answer? Hit our LinkedIn — we genuinely want to know.)

• "Blame AI and the stock rallies." His read on the layoff wave is sharper than anything you've heard on a quarterly call — and it's not what you think AI is doing to jobs.

• 23 million. That's the swing in net U.S. travel since 2019 — and roughly 4 points of national occupancy walking out the door. Sloan's diagnosis: we've hung up a "do not stay here" sign.

• One brand is up 468% since 2017. Its spun-off owner is down 22%. The owner-vs-brand squeeze, the NYC union deal that was a "win" only because it could've been a catastrophe, and why egregious labor contracts may automate those same jobs away faster.

• Rapid fire, no hedging. Best market for the next five years. Worst (sorry, Dallas). And the single number from the new letter that should keep every hotel owner up at night.