LARC's 3Q-2026 U.S. Lodging Industry Outlook

For 2026, U.S. RevPAR is expected to increase by 5.1% to $105.32, driven by ADR growth of 4.4% to $167.90, while occupancy increases 0.7% to 62.7%.

For 2027, LARC expects U.S. RevPAR to increase by 2.1% to $107.56, driven by ADR growth of 1.2% to $169.91, while occupancy improves 0.9% to 63.3%.

LARC forecasts 2026 U.S. Hotel EBTDA to increase 7.7%, with almost 70 bps of margin expansion, and Hotel Values to increase 3%. For 2027, LARC forecasts U.S. Hotel EBITDA to decline less than 1%, with slight margin erosion, and Hotel Values to increase 1%. Over the next five years, LARC expects Hotel Values to increase by a total of 8%. 

For more detail on the views that shape our current U.S. industry forecast as well as a listing of the U.S. cities we expect to be the best and worst performing markets, click here.

On Friday September 11, 2026, at 2:00 pm ET, we will be hosting a webinar to walk through our current U.S. outlook, provide high-level key takeaways from our market forecasts and answer any questions you may have. 

Please click here to purchase any of our 65 3Q-2026 Market Intelligence Reports or contact us if you are interested in learning more about LARC’s industry-leading Market Intelligence capabilities.

Better Market Intelligence

LARC offers a full suite of analytics products for the hotel industry. Our work is grounded in the belief that every hotel market is somewhat unique and requires detailed understanding of the drivers of hotel performance to forecast accurately. As such, LARC offers three core products to clients:

LARC's Market Intelligence Reports for 60+ cities around the U.S. on a quarterly basis. Market Intelligence Reports include a 30-page overview of the market and detailed, transparent and historically accurate forecasts for supply, demand, occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, wages, property taxes, Hotel EBITDA, cap rates and property values on a quarterly basis looking forward five years.  No two markets have an identical set of drivers- each market is analyzed independently of others. As such, we share the back testing of our models, the primary drivers of our models, the R-square on our models and sensitivity tables based on some of our assumptions. This transparency is appreciated by our clients and gives us instant credibility – we don’t just give our clients a forecast, we tell them how we got there and show them why they should trust it.

LARC GIS provides specific data tied to demand drivers around individual properties and aggregates it within whatever is deemed to be a hotel’s local trade area. The data-centric web-based application offers an ability to quantify location quality of a hotel like never before. The tool also offers annual RevPAR growth forecasts for over 19,000 unique geographies in the U.S. as well heat maps for RevPAR growth moving forward. 

Custom Research & Consulting Services include one-off commissioned reports on smaller markets/ submarkets/ price classes. We create custom forecasts for groups of hotels that fit a client’s need. We also offer a variety of bespoke advisory services to the hotel industry ranging from market selection to investment strategy and everything in between, all based on our analytical approach to forecasting.