UK Hotel & Retail sector brings job prospects for Q4 2003 down to ten year low

Comments Hazel Detsiny, a Director at Manpower: "Employers in the Hotel and Retail sector are reporting their lowest final quarter employer hiring intentions in the last 12 years, contributing significantly to the drop in job prospects in the UK. Q4 prospects are usually extremely buoyant due to increased hiring activity, which takes place over the Christmas period to help meet consumer demand."

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey provides a forecast of employer hiring intentions for the quarter ahead: October to December 2003. 2,500 UK employers were surveyed in the UK and over 35,000 employers in 18 countries globally. The Net Employment Outlook(1) (the balance of employers forecasting to take on more staff) for the UK in Q4 is +12%.

Adds Detsiny, "It appears that the renewed optimism in the economy is not translating into as many jobs as in previous years. However, despite this, the UK's job prospects are the strongest in Europe for the second quarter running. If we recognise that the UK tends to be one or two quarters behind the US in forecast hiring activity, there is optimism as employer confidence there appears to have improved."

Across the UK, seven of the nine sectors surveyed are planning to take on staff next quarter, with only the Agriculture sector planning to reduce staff and Mining forecasting no change in staffing levels. The results for the Manufacturing sector are noticeably depressed: with an Outlook of +7%, the sector is 5% points below the Q4 average for the last 12 years (+12%) and is the third lowest Q4 result in ten years. This prediction corresponds with a trend developing as highlighted by Government figures: jobs fell in Manufacturing to an all time low of 3.5 million workers in the three months leading up to June 2003 indicating that growth has slowed in this sector.(2)

All eleven UK regions surveyed are planning to increase staffing levels in Q4 2003. The East Midlands tops all regions with an Outlook of +26%, significantly higher than the average for the region of +17% over the last five years. The South West continues its strong performance from last quarter with a Net Outlook of +25%. Disappointing results were reported by employers in Scotland which only predicted a job Outlook of +4%. London (+9%) continues to report poor results with the worst Q4 results for the region and significantly less than the Q4 average for London of +26% over the last five years.

While Employment Outlooks in Europe vary, the majority of countries reported positive Net increases. The UK showed the greatest optimism together with Sweden with a Net job Outlook of +12%. By contrast, in Germany (-8%) and Ireland (-4%), a greater proportion of employers expected to decrease staffing levels than increase. Austria's (0) employment levels are expected to remain stable.

Globally, hiring activity in the Asia Pacific region as a whole improved as employers in Hong Kong (+5%), Japan (+2%) and Singapore (+3%) reported intentions to increase staffing levels. The Americas saw Mexico employer hiring intentions (+14%) more optimistic than the US (+11%) and Canada (+8%). When seasonal adjustments(3) are applied to the survey data for United States (+4 when seasonally adjusted) and the UK (-3% when seasonally adjusted), a more meaningful view of the data is revealed, with anticipated hiring activity moving in opposite directions through to the end of the year.

Manpower is a leading recruiter of specialist, flexible and contract workforces, employing around 100,000 people in the UK each year. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, [formerly Manpower's Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects] is conducted quarterly to measure employers' hiring intentions for the forthcoming quarter. Unique in its predictive nature, the Survey is widely used in Government and industry, including The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee as evidence of labour market activity. The Survey has been running for more than 40 years and is based on 2,500 interviews with public and private employers in the UK and 35,000 interviews collectively across 18 countries worldwide. See for global reports. For additional information visit .