European Tourism in 2011: Trends & Prospects (Q1/2011)
Of those countries which have reported 2011 performance, the majority are experiencing a positive start to the year. Not only are arrivals generally up, but length of stay appears on the rise as well. These trends are confirmed by hotel industry data which indicate at least modest growth in occupancy in the first months of the year with rates increasing in tandem.
In addition, the capacity of European airlines continues to expand, carrying on the trend from late 2010. This should translate into competitive fares and act as a driver to travel demand over the next 6-8 months.
These encouraging trends appear set to continue, albeit at a slowing rate as comparisons are made to stronger performance in 2010 and high energy prices affect both disposable income and transportation costs.
Our thoughts are with the people of Japan as they persevere through the aftermath of the Tohoku earthquake. The ongoing nuclear crisis and recovery are expected to affect the Japanese economy and consequently outbound travel considerably in the short run. Japan is likely to briefly reenter recession in 2011 with a 10% drop in outbound travel. A considerable rebound is expected on both fronts in 2012.
Overall, prospects are solid. Tourism Economics’ baseline forecast scenario anticipates overnight visitor growth to Europe of 2.6% 2011 and 4% in 2012. This edition of “Trends and Prospects” provides a viewpoint of Europe’s market share of visits from some of its key source markets. This presents an overall theme of gains among emerging European destinations while Western European destinations have generally lost market share. To some extent this is the natural contrast of mature vs. developing destinations. However, it is also a healthy reminder to work together to promote all of Europe to the world.