• Los Angeles's occupancy levels have been well above their 20-year average since 2016. The year-end 2019 level of 81.3% significantly outpaced the longer-term average of 73.9%. RevPAR increased at an average annual rate of 3.5% since 2015, exceeding the Top 25 market average of 1.2% for the period. Pre-pandemic industry fundamentals were particularly strong in Los Angeles.
  • The forecast decline in the Los Angeles hotel occupancy level from 2019 to year-end 2020 is -44.7%, slightly better than the Top 25 market average decline of -48.3%. The forecast decline in ADR for Los Angeles this year is comparable to that of the Top 25 market average (-26.2% vs. -26.4%). These Occupancy and ADR contraction levels are expected to result in a -59.2% decline in RevPAR for Los Angeles in 2020 (vs. a -61.9% for the Top 25 market average).
  • In terms of recovery from the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Los Angeles is expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2024. RevPAR change from 2020 through 2024 is forecast to average +26.8 % during this period (slightly below the Top 25 market average of 27.8%).
    Non-group related drivers of lodging demand throughout metropolitan Los Angeles, particularly in the suburban areas and along the key transportation corridors in and around the city, have expanded significantly over the past decade. While this diversification has led to a highly positive operating environment, the downtown submarket has historically captured the majority of group, trade show and convention demand in the city.
  • As Los Angeles hotels generate a significant percentage of business from group meetings and conventions, a rebound in these sectors will be required to ensure a return to pre-COVID levels of performance

DOWNLOAD AHEAD OF THE CURVE: LOS ANGELES

Anout Ahead of the Curve

Our goal is to provide essential data to the industry at a critical time to enable a comprehensive look into the impact of the pandemic with a focus on looking ahead toward the recovery. By understanding how the pandemic has impacted a market, industry leaders can begin to understand the drivers of the recovery in that market. And by understanding those drivers, those operating in that market can begin to get Ahead of the Curve to accelerate the path to recovery. As part of an ongoing series as a service to the industry, we will provide regular market-specific downloadable reports analyzing the impact and forecasting the recovery of the COVID-19 pandemic on a selection of major U.S. markets.

About Kalibri Labs

Kalibri Labs evaluates and forecasts revenue and cost of acquisition performance in the digital marketplace. Our next-generation HummingbirdPXM platform is the only hotel benchmarking and reporting solution driven by AI and machine learning. HummingbirdPXM is built on a robust database of daily transactions and cost of acquisition data gathered weekly from almost 35,000 hotels. Using advanced algorithms, the platform enables owners and operators to determine a hotel's optimal business mix and manage resources to achieve it. Kalibri Labs unpacks the composition of RevPAR to describe market demand by rate category and channel assisting hotel owners and operators to develop strategies that improve profit contribution, which leads to higher asset values. Tapped regularly by the real estate and investment community, the Kalibri Labs database supports hotel transactions and financial restructuring by brokers, lenders, appraisers, and financial consultants. For more information, visit www.kalibrilabs.com.