Decline in the Los Angeles hotel occupancy level from 2019 to year-end 2020 is -44.7%
Kalibri's Ahead of the Curve: Los Angeles, CA
- Los Angeles's occupancy levels have been well above their 20-year average since 2016. The year-end 2019 level of 81.3% significantly outpaced the longer-term average of 73.9%. RevPAR increased at an average annual rate of 3.5% since 2015, exceeding the Top 25 market average of 1.2% for the period. Pre-pandemic industry fundamentals were particularly strong in Los Angeles.
- The forecast decline in the Los Angeles hotel occupancy level from 2019 to year-end 2020 is -44.7%, slightly better than the Top 25 market average decline of -48.3%. The forecast decline in ADR for Los Angeles this year is comparable to that of the Top 25 market average (-26.2% vs. -26.4%). These Occupancy and ADR contraction levels are expected to result in a -59.2% decline in RevPAR for Los Angeles in 2020 (vs. a -61.9% for the Top 25 market average).
- In terms of recovery from the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Los Angeles is expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2024. RevPAR change from 2020 through 2024 is forecast to average +26.8 % during this period (slightly below the Top 25 market average of 27.8%).
Non-group related drivers of lodging demand throughout metropolitan Los Angeles, particularly in the suburban areas and along the key transportation corridors in and around the city, have expanded significantly over the past decade. While this diversification has led to a highly positive operating environment, the downtown submarket has historically captured the majority of group, trade show and convention demand in the city.
- As Los Angeles hotels generate a significant percentage of business from group meetings and conventions, a rebound in these sectors will be required to ensure a return to pre-COVID levels of performance
Anout Ahead of the Curve
Our goal is to provide essential data to the industry at a critical time to enable a comprehensive look into the impact of the pandemic with a focus on looking ahead toward the recovery. By understanding how the pandemic has impacted a market, industry leaders can begin to understand the drivers of the recovery in that market. And by understanding those drivers, those operating in that market can begin to get Ahead of the Curve to accelerate the path to recovery. As part of an ongoing series as a service to the industry, we will provide regular market-specific downloadable reports analyzing the impact and forecasting the recovery of the COVID-19 pandemic on a selection of major U.S. markets.
About Kalibri Labs
Kalibri Labs evaluates and predicts revenue performance using its proprietary algorithms to generate the Optimal Business Mix for individual hotels, revealing the most promising opportunities to pursue along with specific direction on how to find and convert them. The HummingbirdPXM revenue strategy and benchmarking platform also includes the industry's most robust profiles for travel agent and OTA production. The Kalibri Labs database, updated weekly, is comprised of ADR, room revenue, room nights and acquisition costs from over 8 billion guest stays from almost 35,000 hotels dating back more than 5 years to give an expansive view of the U.S. hotel industry. Real estate developers, brokers, lenders, consultants, and others involved in hotel transactions use Kalibri Labs data to improve underwriting with a more granular view of benchmarks and trendlines for individual hotels, and almost 1000 markets and sub-markets for the U.S. These tools are enhanced with COVID-19 analysis to assist in modeling the future recovery curves.