Regardless of the outcome of Presidential election, hotels in DC are likely to get a boost in the 1st half of the year

• Washington D.C.'s occupancy levels have been generally stable but also above their 20-year average since 2016. The year-end 2019 occupancy level of 73.0% was higher than the longer-term average of 70.4%. RevPAR increased at an average annual rate of 1.6% since 2015, outpacing the Top 25 market average increase of 1.2% for the period. Pre-pandemic industry fundamentals were generally favorable in Washington D.C. due to the diverse nature of their customer mix.
• The forecast decline in the Washington D.C. hotel occupancy level from 2019 to year-end 2020 is -53.0%, slightly worse than the Top 25 market average decline of -48.3%. The forecast decline in ADR for Washington D.C. this year is slightly less than that of the Top 25 market average (-24.8% vs. -26.4%). These Occupancy and ADR contraction levels are expected to result in -64.7% decline in RevPAR for Washington D.C. in 2020 (vs. a -61.9%) for the Top 25 market average. The Washington D.C. 2020 RevPAR contraction is expected to be one of the largest across the 65 markets tracked closely by CBRE (In contrast, Boston RevPAR is forecast to decline by 76.8% in 2020 - worst in the nation).
• While the Washington D.C. hotel market has historically been a comparatively stable environment relative to the nation, the recovery from the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will be somewhat protracted. Washington D.C. is expected to return to 2019 levels in 2025, about a year after the nation. RevPAR change from 2020 through 2024 is forecast to average +30.2% during this period (slightly-above the Top 25 market average of 28.4%).
• The delayed recovery anticipated for the D.C. market comes from the historical reality that group-related travel has represented more than 22.0% of total accommodated demand (in 2019) at a comparatively high Average Daily Rate. A rebound in group and convention-related demand will be required to insure a return to pre-Covid-19 levels of performance.
• Regardless of the outcome of Presidential election, hotels in DC are likely to get a boost in the 1st half of the year, as historically, both the inauguration and changes in the congressional makeup tend to drive an uptick in demand.

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