Game-changing metrics: How Super Bowl LX will shape San Francisco’s hotel market
Analysis by Nick Seaman
Hotels expect ADR to rise 37% and RevPAR to jump 47% in February 2026, though occupancy will trail 2016 levels due to larger supply.
It’s that time of year again – two NFL powerhouses will battle for the Super Bowl LX title, with this year’s showdown happening 8 February at Levi’s Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area.
San Francisco previously hosted the big game in 2016, with the city seeing a major lift in hotel performance. In February, San Francisco hotels reported a 30% jump in revenue per available room (RevPAR) (to US$198), while occupancy reached 81% and average daily rate (ADR) climbed to US$244.36.
The three-day Super Bowl weekend saw even greater performance levels: occupancy (82%), ADR (US$453), and RevPAR ($370). Although Levi’s Stadium sits about 40 miles from San Francisco’s downtown, nearby cities such as San Jose felt the heat of the Super Bowl even more. The city’s hotels saw rates skyrocket, surging 139% the day before kickoff and RevPAR soaring 162%, proving that the ripple effect of the big game extends well beyond just San Francisco.
Fast forward to 2026, San Francisco hotels are forecasted to deliver another set of strong results in February, with room rates projected to rise 37% year over year, fueling a 47% boost in RevPAR. This translates to an actual ADR of US$293.69 and RevPAR of US$192.81 for the month. Compared to 2016, the city is looking at a 19% dip in occupancy and a 3% decline in RevPAR, while ADR would increase 20%.
The forecast is conservative compared to 2016 highs but highlights the market’s struggles post-pandemic. After a challenging few years, San Francisco has had a strong rebound, and October year to date it’s leading the U.S. Top 25 Markets with impressive gains – occupancy climbed by an average of 4.9%, ADR surged 5.9%, and RevPAR soared 11.3%. With the Super Bowl on the horizon, the city is perfectly positioned to kick off the new year with momentum and set the stage for another standout year.
Supply plays a key role in occupancy projections as well. For context, last year’s host city, New Orleans, saw a staggering 51% RevPAR increase year over year and a nearly 96% actualized occupancy on game night, resulting in an ADR of US$810. San Francisco faces a unique challenge, as its supply is roughly 20% larger than New Orleans, making demand harder to concentrate.
Bottom line – Super Bowl LX will still pack a punch for San Francisco and the surrounding area hotels, driven by strong rates and a national spotlight, even if occupancy does not reach past highs.