PATA Outlook: Tourism Growth to 2028 Faces Headwinds from Geopolitical Uncertainty
PATA's new report forecasts Asia Pacific tourism will reach 761.2 million arrivals by 2028, though geopolitical risks could limit recovery to 88% of pre-pandemic levels.
Photo by PATA
BANGKOK — The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) today announces the release of the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028, which shows that inbound arrivals to the Asia Pacific region are projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels from 2026 onward, with the baseline reaching 761.2 million by 2028.
However, in light of evolving geopolitical developments and macroeconomic volatility, the outlook also considers a lower bound forecast scenario, where international visitor arrivals could reach 599.7 million by 2028, representing approximately an 88% recovery compared to 2019 levels.
International tourism is entering a more complex phase where growth continues, but under increasing pressure.
At PATA, we recognise both sides of the equation—the positive momentum driven by strong regional demand, and the downside risks arising from geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, and climate-related disruptions.
In this environment, growth is no longer linear or guaranteed. Destinations and organisations must be prepared for multiple scenarios, with the ability to adapt quickly, recalibrate strategies, and respond with agility. Decision-making must be grounded in real-time data and a clear understanding of risk.
Ultimately, resilience and preparedness will define how well the industry navigates this next phase of uncertainty
PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid
“The results reflect not only the pace of recovery across destinations, but also the deeper structural changes transforming the tourism economy,” said Professor Haiyan Song, Mr and Mrs Chan Chak Fu Professor in International Tourism, Research Center for Digital Transformation of Tourism, School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (SHTM). “Understanding these dynamics is critical for destinations seeking to navigate uncertainty while pursuing more sustainable and competitive growth.”
The report was developed in partnership with the Hospitality and Tourism Research Centre at SHTM PolyU, with additional contributions from PATA destination members and regional data partners. It offers inbound visitor forecasts for 39 Asia Pacific destinations, providing a detailed analysis that reflects the diversity of recovery and potential growth of each region and sub-region.
Drawing on current data and scenario-based modelling, the study outlines a period of structurally constrained and uneven growth shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, climate-related disruptions, evolving aviation and visa policies, and rapid digital and AI-driven transformation across the tourism economy.
In addition to the regional outlook, individual destination reports have also been published for all 39 covered destinations, each providing detailed market-specific projections and localised analysis.
Some highlights from the report:
Ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts continue to pose downside risks to travel demand and cross-border mobility.
Destinations are encouraged to diversify source markets and strengthen public–private collaboration to build greater resilience.
China, the United States, and Türkiye are projected to remain the top three destinations through 2028.
China, Hong Kong SAR, the United States, and Korea (ROK) continue to rank among the region’s leading source markets, despite ongoing air capacity and cost pressures.
Japan and Hong Kong SAR show notable improvement in destination rankings in the post-pandemic period.
Mongolia, Japan, Chile, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka are leading recovery performance, each exceeding 150 percent of their 2019 levels.
By 2028, 27 of the 39 destinations covered in the forecast are expected to surpass their pre-pandemic arrival volumes.
The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026–2028 is now available. Based on the level of membership, access may be granted either directly through the PATA Info Hub or via the PATA Publication using a discount code. To request the code or confirm membership level access, contact the PATA Membership Team at [email protected].
Additionally, detailed data and projections related to the lower bound forecast are available upon request for eligible members. Members in this group may contact the PATA Project Management Department at [email protected] for more information and to request access.
Non-members can purchase the reports at PATA Publication by visiting the following link: www.pata.org/research-q1v63g6n2dw/p/asia-pacific-visitor-forecasts-2026-2028
In connection with this report, a complimentary webinar titled Asia Pacific Tourism Outlook 2026–2028: Growth Under Global Uncertainty was held on Thursday, February 26. The full recording can be accessed via the following link: www.pata.org/calendar/asia-pacific-tourism-outlook-20262028-growth-under-global-uncertainty
For further information, please visit www.PATA.org.
About PATA
The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) is a not-for-profit membership association dedicated to advancing a meaningful Pacific Asia tourism economy. Guided by its mission to share knowledge, enable networking, and protect tourism economy assets through innovation, collaboration, and adaptability, PATA brings together governments, industry leaders, academia, and communities to drive positive, lasting change. Founded in 1951 and headquartered in Bangkok, the Association also has an official office in Beijing. Visit www.PATA.org.
About PolyU School of Hotel and Tourism Management
For more than four decades, the School of Hotel and Tourism Management (SHTM) of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University has refined a distinctive vision of hospitality and tourism education and become a world-leading hotel and tourism school. Ranked No. 1 in the world in the "Hospitality and Tourism Management" category in ShanghaiRanking's Global Ranking of Academic Subjects 2024 for the eighth consecutive year; placed No. 1 globally in the "Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services" category in the University Ranking by Academic Performance in 2023/2024 for seven years in a row; rated No. 1 in the world in the "Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism" subject area by the CWUR Rankings by Subject 2017; and ranked No. 1 in Asia in the "Hospitality and Leisure Management" subject area in the QS World University Rankings by Subject 2025, the SHTM is a symbol of excellence in the field, exemplifying its motto of Leading Hospitality and Tourism.
The School is driven by the need to serve its industry and academic communities through the advancement of education and dissemination of knowledge. With a strong international team of over 90 faculty members from 21 countries and regions around the world, the SHTM offers programmes at levels ranging from undergraduate to doctoral degrees. Through Hotel ICON, the School's groundbreaking teaching and research hotel and a vital aspect of its paradigm-shifting approach to hospitality and tourism education, the SHTM is advancing teaching, learning and research, and inspiring a new generation of passionate, pioneering professionals to take their positions as leaders in the hospitality and tourism industry.
Website: https://www.polyu.edu.hk/shtm/.