HOSTA 2026 report: Dutch hotel industry suffers from VAT increase
The HOSTA 2026 report by Horwath HTL forecasts a 2.5% drop in Dutch hotel demand and rising consumer prices as VAT on accommodation jumps from 9% to 21%.
Photo by Horwath HTL
The results of Dutch hotels are under significant pressure as a result of the VAT increase on accommodation. While there was still a slight increase in occupancy rates in 2025, demand for hotel stays is expected to decrease by approximately 2.5% in 2026. Furthermore, hoteliers expect a drop in net room rates of approximately 2.5% to 5.0%. However, because VAT has been increased from 9% to 21% as of January 1, 2026, the average price for the consumer will rise by approximately 8%. This is evident from the new HOSTA 2026 report by Horwath HTL, which will be presented in Amsterdam on Tuesday, September 8.
Hotel market 2025: end of the recovery period
The average occupancy rate of Dutch hotels rose from 75.9% to 76.6% in 2025. This increase was fully realized in the Amsterdam & Schiphol region, where the occupancy rate rose from 78.7% to 80.7%. Consequently, the hotel market in the capital has still not fully recovered from the corona crisis; in the final years before the crisis, the occupancy rate here was above 85%. In the rest of the Netherlands, the occupancy rate stabilized at 73.3% in 2025, virtually the same as the level before the corona crisis.
The average room rate fell by 2.5% nationwide in 2025. In Amsterdam & Schiphol, the average room rate fell sharply, by 3.7%. The high tourist tax is cited as the main cause; in 2024, it was raised in Amsterdam to 12.5% of the room rate. The average room rate of hotels outside Amsterdam & Schiphol remained stable in 2025. The average room rate in Amsterdam & Schiphol also fell in 2024, while hotels in the rest of the country still reported an increase. Due to the rise in average occupancy rates and the decline in average room rates, RevPAR—revenue per available hotel room—fell from €120 in 2024 to €118 in 2025, a decrease of nearly 2%. Total revenue per hotel room rose by 1.5%, thanks to an increase in revenue from restaurants, meeting rooms, and other facilities. However, the profitability of Dutch hotels has declined again. Expressed as a percentage of revenue, the gross operating result in 2025 is approximately 32%, nearly 5 percentage points lower than in 2024. Because costs continue to rise while revenue is under pressure, gross profit per hotel room has fallen by over 12%.
The recovery period for the hotel industry, which began following the coronavirus crisis in 2020-2021, appears to have come to an end in 2025. Declining results are anticipated for the coming years.
Further declines due to VAT increase
Dutch hoteliers expect further price declines in 2026 and 2027, particularly as a result of the VAT increase on accommodation, which took effect on January 1, 2026. Over 80% of hoteliers expect a decline in occupancy rates and/or average room rates due to the VAT increase. As a result, the national occupancy rate is expected to fall from 76.5% to 74.7% in 2026. The net average room rate, excluding VAT, is expected to decrease by 2.5% from €159 to €155.
Due to the increase in VAT on accommodation from 9% to 21%, the room rate for the consumer is rising. Despite the average decrease of 2.5% in the net room rate, the price including VAT is rising by approximately 7.5%.
For 2027, most hoteliers are also anticipating declining results. Over 70% expect that the occupancy rate and/or average room rate in 2027 will still be lower than in 2025. The occupancy rate is expected to drop to 74.5% in 2027, with an average room rate of €152. In this regard, hoteliers in Amsterdam & Schiphol are more pessimistic about 2027 than hotels in the rest of the country. A major reason for this is the further increases in tourist tax being considered in Amsterdam. The tourist tax could rise from the current 12.5% to 20%. This represents another substantial price increase for the consumer, and it is expected that Amsterdam hoteliers will see their revenues decline again as a result.
The VAT increase and possible increase in tourist tax are seen as the developments with the greatest impact on the Dutch hotel industry in the coming years. Other frequently mentioned developments include personnel costs, sustainability, and the application of AI, as well as geopolitical developments in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran, among others.
Amsterdam & Schiphol Hotel Market Hit Double
The hotel market in Amsterdam & Schiphol is once again at risk of being hit twice by this, due to both the VAT increase and further increases in tourist tax. The occupancy rate in the region has still not fully recovered from the corona crisis, but reached a level of 80.7% in 2025. However, the average room rate, which still rose in 2022 and 2023, has shown a decline since 2024. In 2025, the average room rate in Amsterdam & Schiphol fell again by 2.5%, from €159 to €155.
For 2026, occupancy rates are expected to fall to 78.8% and the average room rate to €150. As a result, the average revenue per hotel room will decrease by more than 5%. Because operating costs are actually rising, profit per hotel room is expected to decline even more sharply. It is expected to take 3 to 5 years for the hotel market in Amsterdam to return to 2023 levels.
HOSTA 2026
The HOSTA 2026 report is a publication by consulting firm Horwath HTL. The report shows the results of the hotel industry in the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. More than 400 three-, four- and five-star hotels in the Benelux participate in the research every year.