The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis on Travel Demand Across Europe
The escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis in past few days has upset the world’s balance and brought with it a new climate of tension and insecurity, forcing the world to put everything (including the pandemic) on the backburner.
Of course, the tourism sector has also been affected by these developments; in this article, we will try to quantify the impact that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is having on the travel industry.
THE SHOCK WAVE.
All European countries have been hit by the powerful shockwave generated by the war; flight search data clearly shows that there is (again) a lot of fear of travelling, regardless of geographical proximity to Ukraine. Political instability is one of the main reasons affecting tourist demand; in fact, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is having such a wide impact that it is also substantially affecting the demand in countries on the opposite side of the continent.
The part of the world most affected is undoubtedly Eastern Europe. In first place is Ukraine, which recorded a decrease of -54% of searches during the last week, compared to the previous week; it’s also important to note that demand for travel to the country had already been falling sharply for weeks. All around, demand for travel collapsed inexorably: Lithuania (-45%), Estonia (-43%), Hungary (-41%), Albania (-38%), Czech Republic (-38%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (-38%), Romania (-36%). Norway and Finland are the only two Northern European countries to fall into this group, with -38% and -35% respectively. In contrast, Serbia is the only Balkan country that has not suffered a reduction in demand.
DISTANT EUROPE.
The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has also affected countries that are geographically distant: searches for flights to Italy fell by 33% in the last week, as did those to Spain (-32%), Germany (-31%), Portugal (-31%) and Iceland (-30%). France (-29%) and the UK (-19%) also recorded a decrease in travel demand.