PATA Mid-Year Update: The Numbers Behind Asia Pacific's Tourism Growth - China’s Volume, Vietnam’s Velocity
PATA and PolyU project Asia Pacific international arrivals to hit 789.2M by 2028, reaching 115.6% of 2019 levels, with Vietnam and Mongolia among the fastest-growing destinations.
Photo by PATA
BANGKOK — The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), in collaboration with the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism (RCDTT) at the School of Hotel and Tourism Management of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU), has released the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028: Mid-Year Update, highlighting the destinations and source markets expected to drive the next phase of tourism growth across the region.
The updated outlook projects that international visitor arrivals (IVAs) across 39 Asia Pacific destinations will reach 714.9 million in 2026, increasing to 758.8 million in 2027 and 789.2 million by 2028. By the end of the forecast period, visitor arrivals are expected to reach 115.6% of 2019 levels, confirming that the region has moved beyond recovery and entered a new phase of tourism expansion.
Change is no longer an occasional disruption; it is the new constant. The destinations and organisations that thrive will be those that can adapt quickly, innovate continuously, and respond with agility to an increasingly complex and fast-changing world.
The latest forecasts demonstrate the remarkable resilience of Asia Pacific tourism. While the region continues to grow and recover, success will increasingly depend on destinations' ability to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, evolving traveller behaviour, connectivity challenges, and rising operational costs. This is precisely why timely, data-driven insights have become essential for strategic decision-making.
PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid
One of the report's key findings is the growing divergence in destination performance across Asia Pacific. While the region as a whole is expanding, some destinations are significantly outperforming others in terms of growth and recovery.
Highlights: APAC Destination Recovery and Growth
Among the region's 10 largest destinations, Vietnam is forecast to record the strongest growth between 2025 and 2027, with IVAs increasing by 31.2% to reach 27.8 million. This is followed by Macao, China (+19.4%), Japan (+15.8%), Hong Kong SAR (+13.9%), Türkiye (+12.7%), and Malaysia (+11.6%), reflecting strong demand, enhanced connectivity, and continued investment in tourism development.
By contrast, some of the region's largest destinations are entering a more mature growth phase. China, while remaining Asia Pacific's largest destination with 157.8 million arrivals projected in 2027, is expected to grow by just 2.2% over 2025 levels. Thailand and the USA are likewise forecast to record more modest gains of 5.2% and 9.0% respectively, highlighting increasing competition across the region.
Looking further ahead, Mongolia is forecast to achieve the highest recovery rate by 2028, reaching 177.8% of its 2019 arrival levels. Japan, the Maldives, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka are also projected to significantly outperform their pre-pandemic benchmarks.
On the other hand, Thailand is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level only by 2028. The USA, Chinese Taipei, the Philippines, Myanmar, and several Pacific Island destinations, however, are projected to remain in recovery mode through to the end of the forecast period.
Of the 39 destinations included in the report, about 27 destinations are projected to exceed pre-pandemic arrival volumes in 2027, then proceed to rise to 30 in 2028.
Notable Outbound Market Sources
The forecasts also provide important guidance for destination marketing organisations, airlines, airports, and tourism investors. China is projected to remain the Asia Pacific region’s largest outbound source market in 2027, generating nearly 127 million visitor arrivals across the region, followed by the USA with 65.2 million. Both markets are expected to record growth of approximately 18% compared to 2025.
Korea (ROK), Canada, and Mexico are also forecast to generate substantial volumes of outbound travellers, although growth rates are expected to vary across these markets.
Challenges and Opportunities on the Horizon
Despite the positive outlook, the report identifies several risks that could influence tourism performance over the coming years. Escalating geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility have increased concerns regarding fuel prices, aviation costs, and air connectivity. Continued inflationary pressures and higher living costs in several source markets may also affect discretionary travel spending, particularly among middle-income households and long-haul travellers.
At the same time, expanding airline networks, airport developments, improved visa facilitation measures, and strengthening intra-regional travel demand are expected to support continued growth across many destinations.
While the recovery trajectory remains positive, destinations must remain agile in responding to evolving market conditions. The forecasts provide an important evidence base for tourism organisations, governments, and industry stakeholders seeking to make informed strategic decisions in a rapidly changing environment.
Professor Haiyan Song, Director, RCDTT, PolyU
The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028: Mid-Year Update provides annual and quarterly forecasts for 39 destinations across Asia Pacific, alongside analysis of major source markets, destination performance trends, and the macroeconomic and geopolitical factors shaping the future of tourism.
The report can be procured through the PATA website via the following link: www.pata.org/research-q1v63g6n2dw/p/apac-visitor-forecast-2026-2028-midyear-update.
Additionally, it is available as a complimentary benefit to eligible PATA members. Access the PATA Info Hub for more information.
About PATA
The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) is a not-for-profit membership association dedicated to advancing a meaningful Pacific Asia tourism economy. Guided by its mission to share knowledge, enable networking, and protect tourism economy assets through innovation, collaboration, and adaptability, PATA brings together governments, industry leaders, academia, and communities to drive positive, lasting change. Founded in 1951 and headquartered in Bangkok, the Association also has an official office in Beijing. Visit www.PATA.org.
About PolyU School of Hotel and Tourism Management
For more than four decades, the School of Hotel and Tourism Management (SHTM) of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University has refined a distinctive vision of hospitality and tourism education and become a world-leading hotel and tourism school. Ranked No. 1 in the world in the "Hospitality and Tourism Management" category in ShanghaiRanking's Global Ranking of Academic Subjects 2024 for the eighth consecutive year; placed No. 1 globally in the "Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services" category in the University Ranking by Academic Performance in 2023/2024 for seven years in a row; rated No. 1 in the world in the "Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism" subject area by the CWUR Rankings by Subject 2017; and ranked No. 1 in Asia in the "Hospitality and Leisure Management" subject area in the QS World University Rankings by Subject 2025, the SHTM is a symbol of excellence in the field, exemplifying its motto of Leading Hospitality and Tourism.
The School is driven by the need to serve its industry and academic communities through the advancement of education and dissemination of knowledge. With a strong international team of over 90 faculty members from 21 countries and regions around the world, the SHTM offers programmes at levels ranging from undergraduate to doctoral degrees. Through Hotel ICON, the School's groundbreaking teaching and research hotel and a vital aspect of its paradigm-shifting approach to hospitality and tourism education, the SHTM is advancing teaching, learning and research, and inspiring a new generation of passionate, pioneering professionals to take their positions as leaders in the hospitality and tourism industry.
Website: https://www.polyu.edu.hk/shtm/.