Jan Freitag and Isaac Calazzo of CoStar & STR break down 2026 and 2027
CoStar's Jan Freitag and STR's Isaac Collazo break down why the 2026 RevPAR forecast jumped from 0.5% to 4.4%, the World Cup's ADR impact, and how to budget for a tough 2027 comp set.
Photo by Not Done with Sloan Dean
Hotels just had their best summer since 2019. June RevPAR +8.4%. July +8.2%. Twenty straight weeks of growth. World Cup host cities ran ADR up ~15% during the event. Nobody saw it coming, including the two men whose job it is to see it coming.
Jan Freitag is the National Director of Hospitality Analytics at CoStar, and for 30 years he's been the guy Wall Street calls with a hotel question. Isaac Collazo runs STR's analytics and forecast team. They host their own show, Tell Me More. Tomorrow I get to host them, and we went data, data, data.
What we got into:
Why STR's 2026 RevPAR growth forecast went from 0.5% to 4.4% in nine months. Isaac walked me through exactly where the model missed. It was rate, not demand. And the inflection was December, not June.
The World Cup was an ADR event, not an occupancy event. FIFA held massive blocks, washed them 90 days out, and hoteliers were left holding open rooms. Vancouver was down 12%. Chicago won by not hosting.
Why consumer sentiment has never been in STR's model and never will be. Nobody forecasts it, and people say one thing and do another.
"10 + 2." The only way to think about 2027 comps. June and July are a 50 bps headwind to the full year. Plan for flat-to-down in those two months and don't panic.
There is no C in economy. It's still a K. Jan is writing the op-ed. I agree with him.
Supply growth is 0.5%. 140,000 rooms under construction versus 220,000 in 2019. If you have the wherewithal to renovate now, you'll be the new kid on the block for a very long time.
"We borrowed from 2025 and stole from 2027." Jan's read on international inbound, plus my unfiltered take on U.S. travel policy that my editor mercifully left in.
It's budget season. Owners want it November 1, lenders December 1. Listen before you build it.
About CoStar Group, Inc.
CoStar Group (NASDAQ: CSGP) is a global leader in commercial real estate information, analytics, online marketplaces, and 3D digital twin technology. Founded in 1986, CoStar Group is dedicated to digitizing the world’s real estate, empowering all people to discover properties, insights, and connections that improve their businesses and lives.
CoStar Group’s major brands include CoStar, a leading global provider of commercial real estate data, analytics, and news; LoopNet, the most trafficked commercial real estate marketplace; Apartments.com, the leading platform for apartment rentals; Homes.com, the fastest-growing residential real estate marketplace; and Domain, one of Australia’s leading property marketplaces. CoStar Group’s industry-leading brands also include Matterport, a leading spatial data company whose platform turns buildings into data to make every space more valuable and accessible; STR, a global leader in hospitality data and benchmarking; Ten-X, an online platform for commercial real estate auctions and negotiated bids; and OnTheMarket, a leading residential property portal in the United Kingdom.
CoStar Group’s websites attracted over 139 million average monthly unique visitors in the fourth quarter of 2025, serving clients around the world. Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, CoStar Group is committed to transforming the real estate industry through innovative technology and comprehensive market intelligence. From time to time, we plan to utilize our corporate website as a channel of distribution for material company information. For more information, visit CoStarGroup.com.