TIA's Traveler Sentiment Index Falls Moderately In Fourth Quarter 2004
WASHINGTON, DC -- The Travel Industry Association of America's (TIA) quarterly Traveler Sentiment Index showed a moderate decline in fourth quarter 2004, falling 3.2 percent to 95.8 from third quarter 2004. The decline is due to negative consumer perceptions in four of the five components of the overall index. Consumers were most concerned about their ability to take a pleasure trip based on their personal finances and available free time.
WASHINGTON, DC -- The Travel Industry Association of America's (TIA) quarterly Traveler Sentiment Index showed a moderate decline in fourth quarter 2004, falling 3.2 percent to 95.8 from third quarter 2004. The decline is due to negative consumer perceptions in four of the five components of the overall index. Consumers were most concerned about their ability to take a pleasure trip based on their personal finances and available free time. They were also slightly less interested in taking pleasure trips and were somewhat negative about the affordability of pleasure travel compared to third quarter 2004. The only index remaining unchanged was traveler perceptions of service received while traveling. The survey was conducted October 14 - 24, 2004.
"We suspect that much of this downturn is related to the very intense and very negative barrage of campaign messages in the final weeks before the presidential election when the survey was in the field," remarked Dr. Suzanne Cook, senior vice president of research for the Travel Industry Association of America.
Among all five index components, the largest declines were in the ability to travel based on personal finances index, which declined 8.1 percent, and the ability to travel based on time index, which declined 5.5 percent from last quarter. The index measuring interest in taking pleasure trips showed a slight drop of nearly 2 percent from last quarter, although it has been generally rising since the first quarter of 2002. The affordability of travel index decreased less than one percent and continues to be much lower than it has been in the past. TIA's November 2004 Travel Price Index shows that travel prices have risen 6.1 percent since November 2003.
Due to industry concerns about the threat of terrorism, TIA began to measure consumer perceptions about travel safety starting with the fourth quarter 2001 (October) survey. While travel safety is not a component of the Traveler Sentiment Index, it can be indexed by itself against the baseline of fourth quarter 2001. This quarter, the travel safety index is at 124.5, an increase of 1.5 percent from third quarter 2004 and an increase of nearly 25 percent from fourth quarter 2001.
When the overall Traveler Sentiment Index is examined on a regional basis, the West shows the only increase (+1.8%) over third quarter 2004. There were declines in the overall indices for travelers living in the Northeast (-3%), the South (-3.8%) and the Midwest (-6.9%).
Members of the media can obtain TIA's latest Traveler Sentiment Index report, including additional analysis and charts for each index, by sending an e-mail to [email protected].
NOTE: TIA's quarterly Traveler Sentiment Index (TSI) is conducted four times per year and is a running gauge of consumers' interest in leisure travel and their perceived ability to travel. The study consists of five criteria: interest, time, finances, affordability, and service quality. The TSI is based on quarterly interviews with approximately 1,000 U.S. adults who have taken at least one trip in the past year. Each criterion is measured individually and then combined to create an overall index score. The baseline year for the Index is the year 2000.