CBRE Hotels prepares annual industry outlooks for the Canadian accommodation industry. This release details CBRE's 5-year national outlook, an updated 2025 forecast, and the 2026 outlook for 13 Canadian major markets and the provinces.
Slowly Falling Interest Rates Should Boost Investment Activity.
Hotel-generated state and local tax revenue will reach new heights nationally ($46.71 billion) and in states across the nation this year, according to state-by-state projections released today by the American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA) and Oxford Economics.
The hotel industry in 2023 is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels of demand, nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue, while inching closer to other key 2019 performance metrics, according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association’s 2023 State of the Hotel Industry Report.
While the overall U.S. jobs market has now surpassed pre-pandemic levels, the Leisure & Hospitality (L&H) industry still remains far behind in its recovery of lost, and desperately needed, jobs.
Midway through 2022, the hotel industry continues to make strides toward recovery, with nominal hotel room revenue and state and local tax revenues projected to exceed 2019 levels by the end of this year, according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA)’s 2022 Midyear State of the Hotel Industry Report. Hotel room revenue is projected to surpass $188 billion by the end of 2022, eclipsing 2019 figures on a nominal basis. When adjusted for inflation, however, revenue per available room (RevPAR) is not expected to surpass 2019 levels until 2025.
The odds of the U.S. economy entering a recession in 2020 have fallen to around one in four, according to Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks, but an inevitable slowdown in economic growth is a reality that the travel and hotel industries will have to live with for the foreseeable future.
Despite increasing concerns about a global economic slowdown, the trade war, and geopolitical risks, the U.S. hotel transaction market remained healthy and active in 2019. According to preliminary data generated by Real Capital Analytics (RCA), total sales volume declined by 15%, from $43.6 billion in 2018 to $37.1 billion in 2019, though as will be illustrated, the decline was due primarily to lower portfolio sales activity.
Despite the relatively high cost of construction and complexity of operations, developers are still attracted to owning and managing luxury hotels. As of August 2019, STR reports that just 0.7 percent of the hotels (2.3% of rooms) in the United States are chain-affiliated luxury hotels. Concurrently, the STR pipeline report shows that 1.2 percent of the properties (2.9% of rooms) either under construction or planned for development meet this criterion.
Where the industry stands in terms of a downturn remains a question for many, and sales and marketing experts are no exception. During a recent think tank held in conjunction with the Hospitality Sales and Marketing Association International's Sales Leader Forum near Dallas, Allison Handy, SVP of sales, marketing and revenue optimization at Prism Hotels & Resorts, posed this question: "Is our industry creating its own recession?"
According to the March 2019 edition of CBRE's Hotel Horizons® forecast report, RevPAR growth for the U.S. lodging industry will be limited to under 2.5 percent through 2020. Further, CBRE is projecting a 0.6 percent decline in RevPAR for 2021 as CBRE expects the economy to slow down during the year. The combination of modest increases in revenue and rising operating expenses (especially labor) make hotel owners and operators nervous about their ability to enjoy profit growth the next few years.
Detroit's image of a proper rust-belt city in the depths of despair during the Great Recession and the subsequent filing of bankruptcy in 2013 has been reshaped into an inspiring story of resilience and resurgence. Detroit's economy is strong, with unemployment decreasing every year since 2014 and an employment base that continues to diversify. While the economic mainstays—General Motors, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler—still thrive in the city, other major employers belong to the financial and healthcare sectors; moreover, the technology sector continues to grow.
Surrounded by the beauty of lakes and the Mississippi River, Minneapolis is home to many Fortune 500 companies and more than 11,000 hotel rooms. High quality of life, diversity of employers, and leisure attractions continue to entice demand and an ensuing level of hotel development to the area.
Growth in the booming U.S. hotel industry is cooling off, data tracker STR forecasts, setting the stage for the lodging industry's worst stretch since 2009.
We live in interesting times. Each day, we cannot be sure which way the stock market will swing, with its volatile nature and seemingly knee-jerk reactions to the trade and policy headline of the day. If the stock market serves as a leading indicator of times to come, the economy in 2019 is likely to slow in comparison to the one to which we've become accustomed. Despite this trajectory, other factors still signal that the hotel industry isn't likely falling off a cliff anytime soon.
In 2017, the actual achieved levels of occupancy, average daily rate (ADR), total revenue and profits for U.S. hotels were less than their respective budgeted amounts. After a five-year period (2011 through 2015) of extremely accurate budget projections, this marks the second consecutive year that owners and operators failed to meet their operating goals.
Many of us who attended The Lodging Conference this past month heard Bernard Baumohl, Chief Economist for the Conference Board, provide his economic forecast. He covered topics in his usual fast, effective and entertaining style. Some interesting takeaways were that business spending is not up much, oil is going to see oversupply and is up markedly due to politics (not the market), and GDP will be up 3 percent this year, 2.2 percent next year and 1.4 percent in 2020, according to the Consensus Forecast.
TravelClick, a leading global provider of data and revenue-generating solutions for hoteliers, today released new data from the Company's August 2018 North American Hospitality Review (NAHR). According to this data, the second half of the year has stable rates and bookings across all travel segments, up 1.80 percent in average daily rates (ADR) and 0.51 percent in bookings in the third quarter when compared to the prior year. Group travel in Q3 is also up 1.81 percent in ADR and 0.50 percent in bookings, and the transient segment overall is up 1.80 percent in ADR and 0.52 percent in bookings in the same time period.
Lodging is a cyclical industry meaning that it passes over time through four distinct phases: peak, contraction, trough and expansion. Most industry participants believe that 2007 was the previous peak of the current business cycle following six years of expansion from the 2001 industry recession. According to STR, the demand for lodging increased for six consecutive years from 2002 through 2007, while average daily room rates (ADR) grew in excess of 4.5 percent during the latter four years. Per CBRE Hotels' Trends® in the Hotel Industry survey, gross operating profits (GOP) were growing at a 10 percent annual pace leading up to 2007.
U.S. Economy