Finance

Demand forecasts are always wrong. Agility is more important than accurate forecasting.

As a seasoned Revenue and Profit Optimization professional I would like to reitarate (which I have already expressed in my book Hospitality 2.0 and other publications): travel demand has always been uncertain, and history never repeats itself. Recent events just highlighted this fact for all of us (again), just like COVID did, and many events before that.

Now that the industry has come to this understanding, it's time to build a better "model of our reality" that can incorporate the uncertainty in a more optimal manner. It's time to rebuild our forecasting methods. Again, I describe this in detail in a separate chapter of my book.

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Short answer: Absolutely not. Long answer: Absolutely not!

Direct distribution is not just about saving a few percentage points on commissions.
It's about building your brand equity, owning your customer relationships, capturing valuable data, and creating repeat business without paying a toll each time. It's the difference between owning your guest and renting your guest.

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Is Geographic Price Discrimination in Travel Just Good Business—or a Problem?

Offering differentiated hotel pricing based on the geographic location of guests brings us to a timeless question: Can business practices be both profitable and ethical, or is that just a comforting fairy tale for capitalists with a conscience?

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A non-traditional view on why rate parity is a good thing for hotels while the discussion around it might not be…

OTAs typically have the better booking experience, greater reach thanks to infinitely higher marketing spend, and if they also have the better price thanks to member rates, mobile exclusive discounts, package rates, etc., why would anyone still book direct?

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Where there are no gates, there are no gatekeepers

We're looking at the finger and not at the moon. As the EC focuses on writing norms, the web for which these norms are written no longer exists. We are witnessing an evolution towards what I like to call a post-search era. AI assistants (be they conversational tools such as ChatGPT/Claude or physical devices such as Rabbit's R1) will one day become the primary (if not the only) interfaces for web access. These models could evolve into primary aggregators and distributors of information, particularly in over-fragmented industries such as ours.

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AI will not replace human Revenue Leaders anytime soon

I do not anticipate the complete demise of human Revenue strategists any time soon. The day to day activities of a revenue manager may change and many entry-level positions will be eliminated.  How this trend of  not creating a pipeline of new Revenue Leaders is going to impact the industry 10-20 years from now, is material for another discussion.

From Revenue Manager to Commercial Strategist

Six years ago I attended the Revenue Forum in Brussels. It was my very first industry event. I remember the potential threat posed by Business Intelligence to Revenue Managers was a hot topic. Back then Revenue Managers spent a fair share of their time manually compiling data from various sources into a single, giant, Excel sheet that could be analysised for optimisation. As BI solutions became more widespread, some revenue managers feared that their roles would become redundant. If they weren't going to be the masters of the giant Excel, what were they going to do?

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