Navigating the Longer Road Back: The Recovery of Manhattan’s Hotel Market

The Manhattan market has been experiencing a prolonged post-pandemic occupancy recovery, despite strong ADR gains. Although legislative and supply changes should bolster this recovery, recent geopolitical factors and the tariffs and policy changes enacted by the new federal administration are expected to affect short-term hotel market trends. Our current demand forecast shows a full recovery beyond 2019 levels by 2027/28.

US Hospitality Directions: May 2025

In 2025, the U.S. lodging sector faces a challenging landscape, characterized by a combination of macroeconomic and capital market factors, including an uncertain tariff environment, an in-flux immigration policy, elevated interest rate environment, and potentially higher inflation. As a result of the macroeconomic headwinds, GDP in 2025 is expected to grow by 0.7%, compared to 2.5% in 2024, on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis. Steady, albeit still high, inflation is anticipated to rise to 2.7% in 2025, which coupled with geopolitical uncertainties is expected to significantly influence consumer behavior, particularly impacting the lower-priced chain scale segments. As a result, our forecast expects RevPAR growth to decelerate significantly to 0.8%. The key risks continue to be on room night demand, just as lodging supply growth is reverting to its long-term average of ~2.0%. Key demand performance trends and risks include:

Guest spending boosts US economy by a record $90 billion in 2024

In 2024, Airbnb marked a major milestone with our 2 billionth guest arrival when Wisconsin retirees Tim and Theresa stayed in a spectacular Guest Favorite Airbnb in Sandy, Utah, with their family. All across the country, travelers like Tim and Theresa are booking Airbnbs to reconnect with loved ones and experience new destinations. In doing so, they’re also supporting local economies – from small towns to big cities – and driving meaningful economic impact into every corner of the country.

State of the District: A Look at the Washington, D.C., Lodging Market

Decisions at the federal level, such as import tariffs, are affecting global markets, and cuts initiated by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are having impacts across the nation. These policies are also significantly affecting hotels in Washington, D.C., the market located at the heart of the federal government.