The U.S. hotel industry reported decreases in all three key performance measurements during the week of 28 March-3 April 2010, according to data from STR. In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy ended the week with a 3.6-percent decrease to 54.1 percent. Average daily rate dropped 4.4 percent to finish the week at US$94.45. Revenue per available room for the week was down 7.9 percent to US$51.05.
The face of the U.S. hotel industry’s recovery is taking on a different look. According to STR’s revised forecast for 2010 and 2011, recovery could be influenced by things such as tax changes and health-care reform. The means a rebound will come quicker in 2010 but could get slow as 2011 unfolds.
Over the last several years, tourism, hospitality and leisure (THL) companies have experienced a downturn of historical proportions. Companies were glad to see 2009 come to an end. The protracted recession in the United States that began in late 2007 and the global meltdown of financial markets that occurred a year later led to a sharp cutback in spending from businesses and consumers. As both leisure and business travel contracted, many sectors suffered multi-year declines that were the worst ever recorded by industry-watchers.
Mark Woodworth, President of PKF Hospitality Research, and Robert Mandelbaum, Director of Research Information Services, walk through the latest economic thinking behind the March - May 2010 Edition of Hotel Horizons®.
The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 21-27 March 2010, according to data from STR. In year-over-year measurements, the industry's occupancy ended the week with a 5.9-percent increase to 59.9 percent. Average daily rate dropped 1.6 percent to finish the week at US$98.29. Revenue per available room for the week was up 4.2 percent to US$58.89.
The Canadian hotel industry reported increases in all three key performance measurements during the week of 21-27 March 2010, according to data from STR. In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy increased 3.1 percent to 59.2 percent. Average daily rate ended the week virtually flat with a 0.2-percent increase to CAD$120.75. Revenue per available room for the week went up 3.2 percent to CAD$71.46.
In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy ended the week with a 5.2-percent increase to 61.4 percent. Average daily rate dropped 1.9 percent to finish the week at US$98.30. Revenue per available room for the week was up 3.2 percent to US$60.39.
The U.S. hotel industry posted mixed results in the three key performance measurements during February 2010, according to data from STR. In year-over-year measurements, the industry's occupancy ended the month virtually flat with a 0.9-percent increase to 53.0 percent. Average daily rate dropped 4.5 percent to finish the month at US$96.40. Revenue per available room for the month decreased 3.6 percent to finish at US$51.09.
While declining values, debt maturity and tight credit access, and stalled construction may continue to plague commercial real estate in the United States for the remainder of 2010, economic indicators point towards the potential for economic recovery this year. For investors, this environment reveals a window of opportunity in 2010 when investment in distressed assets may prove to be opportune, according to Deloitte's Perspectives on Real Estate: Uncovering Opportunity in a Distressed Market, released today.
PKF-HR is forecasting hotel rooms revenue to grow 10.5 percent on a per-available-room basis (RevPAR) in 2012. "The U.S. lodging industry has not seen double-digit growth in RevPAR since the inflationary days of the late 1970s and early 1980s," said R. Mark Woodworth, president of PKF Hospitality Research. "The strong growth in RevPAR is driven by Moody's Economy.com's forecasts for income and employment. In 2012, Moody's is projecting income to grow at a 4.4 percent pace, something we have not seen since 2006. In addition, the 3.2 percent forecast growth for employment that year is an all-time high since 1988."
The Hotel Industry Pulse Index (HIP) posted a slight recovery in February, according to economic research firm e-forecasting.com in conjunction with STR. After edging down 0.5 percent in January, HIP improved 1.3 percent in February.
In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy ended the week with a 2.5-percent increase to 55.3 percent. Average daily rate dropped 4.7 percent to finish the week at US$96.06. Revenue per available room for the week fell 2.3 percent to finish at US$53.15.
The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed results in the three key measurements during the week of 14-20 February 2010, according to data from STR. In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy ended the week with a 2.4-percent increase to 55.4 percent. Average daily rate dropped 4.4 percent to finish the week at US$95.81. Revenue per available room for the week fell 2.2 percent to finish at US$53.04.
The U.S. hotel industry posted declines in all three key performance measurements during January 2010, according to data from STR. In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy ended the month virtually flat with a 0.4-percent decrease to 45.1 percent. Average daily rate dropped 7.1 percent to finish the month at US$93.93. Revenue per available room for the month decreased 7.4 percent to finish at US$42.35.
The U.S. hotel industry reported decreases in all three key measurements during the week of 7-13 February 2010, according to data from STR. In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy ended the week with a 2.3-percent decrease to 53.7 percent. Average daily rate dropped 4.7 percent to finish the week at US$97.12. Revenue per available room for the week fell 6.9 percent to finish at US$52.19.
In the December 2009 edition of Hotel Horizons®, PKF Hospitality Research (PKF-HR) is forecasting a third consecutive year of declining revenue per available room (RevPAR) for U.S. hotels in 2010. By year end 2010, PKF-HR projects that the average U.S. hotel will suffer a 1.1 percent decline in RevPAR, the net result of a 0.4 percent gain in occupancy, but a 1.5 percent decline in average daily rate (ADR).
Economic research firm e-forecasting.com in conjunction with Smith Travel Research announced HIP declined in January after improving 2.8 percent in December. HIP, the Hotel Industry's Pulse index, is a composite indicator that gauges business activity in the U.S. hotel industry in real-time, similar to a GDP measure. The latest monthly change brought the index to a reading of 82.4. The index is set to equal 100 in 2000.
The good news is that Canadian occupancy and average room rates for all hotels were higher than those in the United States in 2009. The Canadian occupancy was just over 56%, slightly higher than the 55% reported in the US, but more importantly our average room rate was $117.55 relative to $97.51 in the US. That's a $20 differential! The Canadian RevPAR was $65.95, down 11.9%, which compares to $53.71 in the US, down 16.7%. So 2009 was bad, but it was far worse south of the border.
The total active U.S. hotel development pipeline includes 3,647 projects comprising 378,145 rooms, according to the January 2010 STR/TWR/Dodge Construction Pipeline Report released this week. This represents a 35.9-percent decrease in the number of rooms in the total active pipeline compared to January 2009. The total active pipeline data includes projects in the In Construction, Final Planning and Planning stages, but does not include projects in the Pre-Planning stage.
The U.S. hotel industry welcomed the dawn of 2010. Performance measures in the first half of 2009 were particularly troublesome for many companies, and only in the closing months of the year were there glimmers of hope. By December 2009, a number of major markets started to experience increases in occupancy and revenue per available room (revPAR), following what in some cases has been multi-year, record-breaking declines. In particular, steep price discounting appeared to be a less important strategy in filling rooms. As noted in this report, domestic tourism activity is starting to revive for a few select markets, declines in international travel are lessening and business travel remains mostly stagnant.