Four Indicators It Might Be Time For A Rebrand
Today we are asking…
Today we are asking…
After spending the last 32 years tracking and analyzing the Boston/Cambridge (“the City”) lodging market, Pinnacle Advisory Group (“Pinnacle”) is quite comfortable forecasting top line (occupancy and ADR) revenue for the City. But projecting the future with precision can be complicated. Here’s our perspective on the City’s lodging market for 2024:
With the busiest airport in the world and a lower cost of doing business than peer regions, Metro Atlanta is the key inland distribution hub of the Southeast. Metro Atlanta is home to 17 Fortune 500 corporations like The Home Depot, Coca-Cola, Delta Air Lines, and UPS. It also sustains a diverse economy centered around technology, healthcare and health tech, logistics, advanced manufacturing, and now electric vehicles and clean tech. For the 10th consecutive year Area Development Magazine has ranked Georgia the number one state for business.
With the pandemic mostly in the past, Downtown Indianapolis’s ADR has fully recovered, but occupancy still has not returned to 2019 levels given the slow rebound of corporate demand. However, leisure demand has increased, and the city’s event pipeline is robust, supporting a positive outlook for Downtown Indianapolis.
The hospitality industry has suffered major labor shortages, as of earlier this year, over 2 million hospitality jobs were open and job reports show little change since.
New Orleans consistently ranks among the top leisure destinations in the United States due to its reputation for food, drink, and music; the preserved Vieux Carré (French Quarter); and its innate culture of hospitality. In 2020, New Orleans’s most popular event, Mardi Gras, was held on February 25, but the city shut down on March 20 as COVID-19 infection rates began to increase. Thus, Jazz Fest and other conventions, events, and festivals for the rest of that year were canceled.
While Anchorage was significantly affected by the pandemic, a surge of independent travelers boosted the economy in 2021. More robust growth occurred in 2022 with the return of normal demand sources. Furthermore, the conversion of hotels to permanent housing has reduced the hotel supply in Anchorage and contributes to recent trends.
Recently, the California Assembly quietly instituted a bill that would dramatically change the landscape of ADA website litigation. If you think the recent wave of ADA website lawsuits has been alarming, buckle up – because you haven’t seen anything yet.
With the pandemic generally in the rearview for the market, Downtown Memphis hotels have yet to recover to occupancy levels realized in 2019. This is attributed to a slow recovery in both corporate and group demand, coupled with significant growth in new supply. However, rising average rates at new hotels have become the saving grace for market RevPAR levels.
Notwithstanding a persistent jittery economic environment and rising global geopolitical concerns, market conditions in the U.S. appear simultaneously shaky and resilient. National lodging sector metrics, particularly average room rates and RevPAR, continue to achieve exceptional results as demand for travel and lodging remains robust. Although overall leisure patronage is trailing off from pandemic highs, due in part to Americans opting for international travel, domestic corporate individual and group meeting business continues to rebound to pre Covid-19 levels. Additionally, inbound international travel to the U.S. continues to recover.
The onset of COVID-19 in March 2020 had devastating effects for the tourism industry across the country, and the state of Connecticut experienced the third-largest decline in travel, tourism, and outdoor recreation employment from Q2 2019 to Q2 2020. Connecticut was quick to rebound, however, with 2022 occupancy levels only slightly below those of 2019 and average daily rate (ADR) levels far surpassing those of 2019. The upcoming renovation of the XL Center in Hartford, Connecticut’s “Find Your Vibe” campaign, and the state’s current hotel development pipeline are all indicators of Connecticut’s recovery and success.Connecticut’s strong recovery in 2022 and further growth in 2023 can be linked to the state’s “Find Your Vibe” campaign that commenced in June 2022, which highlights the state’s year-round tourism activities, such as music and arts festivals, outdoor activities, and restaurants. CTvisit.com, the state’s official tourism website, drew a record 7.1 million visits this past year, which ranked it among the top-five state tourism sites in the nation for both traffic and engagement. Furthermore, select towns in Connecticut were recently featured as popular destinations in leading publications. The New York Times listed New Haven as one of the top places to go in 2023, and Mystic ranked fourth in USA Today’s list of “10 best summer vacation destinations in the U.S. for 2023.” Additionally, a study recently released by Tourism Economics illustrates that direct visitor spending in Connecticut generated roughly $17 billion in total business sales in 2022, approximately 3.7% higher than the previous peak in 2019 ($16.4 billion).Moreover, Hartford’s XL Center is slated for a $100-million renovation starting in 2024. Plans for the arena include the expansion of the loading dock, the addition of a sports-betting venue on the west side of the arena, and the creation of more luxury seating. The primary impetus behind the renovation is attracting an NHL team to call the facility home. Connecticut has been without an NHL team since 1997, when the Hartford Whalers moved to North Carolina. However, Connecticut governor Ned Lamont has said there is a group in place to buy the Arizona Coyotes and relocate them to Hartford. This comes in the wake of Arizona voters’ rejection of a $2-billion proposal for a new arena, leaving the Coyotes without a permanent place to play. Although the acquisition is highly speculative, a new sports team, coupled with the XL Center’s facelift, could bolster tourism demand for the state.
Despite ending 2022 still 29% below 2019 levels, transient and group business travel have made considerable progress this year.
It seems like we’re on an economic rollercoaster right now and the big question is when we get off. When does inflation cool? We dig into the latest data to help determine if a soft landing really is where we’re heading.
In 2022, the Coachella Valley experienced a resurgence in tourism, with visitor numbers surpassing pre-pandemic levels and spending reaching new heights. The direct visitor spending of $7.1 billion had a total economic ripple effect of $8.7 billion, showcasing the area's growing appeal. A significant chunk of this spending, more than 30%, was dedicated to lodging, including hotels and short-term rentals. Tourism is expected to remain robust throughout 2023, with major events like the Power Trip music festival in October 2023 poised to attract visitors from across the region.
While commercial real estate as a whole continues to navigate uncertainty, the hotel property market is experiencing a unique set of challenges and opportunities. Hotel owners and operators currently face a significant divergence in hotel operations performance across different locations and sectors. Meanwhile, potential buyers and sellers are grappling with how to accurately value hotel properties and manage rising debt costs and interest rates, leading to a complex and depressed deal market for hospitality properties.
Each quarter, we continue to dig deeper into the traveler experience and identify barriers and points of friction that keep travelers at home or traveling less frequently based on a quarterly consumer survey with Ipsos.
When the Patel family opened a hotel in Dickinson, North Dakota in 2007, they agreed that brand recognition offered by a large franchise chain would be a valuable trade-off to operating independently. After careful analysis, they chose to operate their family hotel as a Quality Inn and Suites with Choice Hotel International Inc. (Choice Hotels). This is similar to the decisions being made by thousands of entrepreneurs each year to become franchisees of large brands instead of working as independent small business owners.
Central Oregon is a drive-to destination market situated east of the Cascade Mountain range. Home to twelve cities, this region of Oregon benefits as a popular leisure destination for travelers from throughout the Pacific Northwest. Surrounded by a diverse natural landscape, Central Oregon welcomes nearly four million overnight visitors per year looking to take advantage of all the area has to offer. In recent years, cities throughout the region have seen significant changes in the travel industry as hotels, businesses, and attractions have weathered the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Based on a sample of more than 3,000 hotels from CBRE’s Trends® in the Hotel Industry database, U.S. hotel property tax expenditures averaged $2,626 per available room (PAR) in 2022. This is 10.8% less than the $2,943 PAR recorded in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Concurrently, the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for these same properties fell by 1.7%.