Known to many as the Eternal City, Rome has an uninterrupted history spanning two and a half thousand years. Apart from incredible historical sites, Rome has some of the world’s finest luxury hotels, often carved out of grand palazzos that once served members of the royal court of the Papal elite, and all of them adorned with opulent finishings and fine art.
On March 16, 2023, the Federal Council of Switzerland declared an emergency order introducing the Public Liquidity Backstop (PLB)1. In doing so, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) granted a CHF 100 billion loan to Credit Suisse (federal default guaranteed)2. In September of the same year, the Federal Council also presented its (provisional) draft bill concerning the PLB for banks of systemic importance3.
Snapshot of the London hotel market in 2024 with an exploration of tourism demand, hotel performance, hotel supply, the investment market and the market outlook.
The following article presents the highlights of a plenary session, moderated by EHL’s Prof. Steffen Raub, held on July 3, 2024 during the American Association of Wine Economists’ summer conference in Lausanne, Switzerland. EHL Hospitality Business School played host to the world’s leading wine economists and showcased the spectacular wine-producing regions, namely the Lavaux and the Valais.
Contrary to the pessimists who dwell on seeing the glass as half-empty, while it steadily filled up over the weeks, the final result is very positive. It is generally satisfying both in terms of numbers and the overall sentiment of having successfully hosted a major global event without major hitches.
Sustainable consumer behavior in hospitality encompasses actions that help preserve the environment, such as green purchasing, recycling and conserving natural resources. In the tourism context, this includes actions such as buying local products, saving water, reusing towels, conserving energy and reducing food waste. However, these behaviors and their motivations can vary significantly among different consumer groups. This makes it very difficult for hospitality actors to create sustainable offers – as what “sustainable” means varies between tourists and whether they will buy it or pay more for it is another under-researched question.
Since 1824, The Shelbourne has been a warm and inviting jewel of hospitality and the setting for some of the most dramatic cultural and political moments in Irish history. Beloved by guests and locals as “Ireland’s living room,” The Shelbourne has always reflected the spirit of the city around it, playing a significant role in the literary, social, political, culinary and artistic traditions of Irish society.
For H1 2024 a total of €655M was transacted, a near fourfold increase on the approximately €173M traded in H1 2023 – this pushed transaction volumes over the past year to an all-time high of almost €790M. Activity was supported by continued good operational performance across the sector and a couple of large deals including the sales of the Shelbourne Hotel and a majority stake in the Dean Hotel Group.
Prime yields have moved modestly higher over the past twelve months but looking forward we expect them to stabilise, boosted by gradually looser ECB monetary policy with the first steps in this journey occurring in June with a 25 basis point interest rate cut. With growing appetite among investors and liquidity in the debt markets, we expect to see a gradual yield sharpening for prime assets as we progress into 2025.
Despite ongoing supply growth, the occupancy and ADR in Irish hotels remained healthy in H1 2024, with only minor softening relative to H1 2023. While RevPAR in Ireland declined by 1.2% to €125 in H1 2024, it was the 3rd-highest level in Europe. In Dublin, the occupancy reached 80% in H1 2024, the second highest in Europe, albeit a minor decline from 2023. This, combined with a 4% drop in ADR, resulted in a 5% RevPAR decrease, although 23% above pre-Covid level in 2019.
510 new rooms were delivered in Dublin in H1 while Premier Inn also opened their first hotel in Cork in January. We estimate there are currently in excess of 1,700 hotel rooms under construction in Dublin (around 6% of Dublin’s room stock) while two hotels in Cork are also due to open later this year. The new supply is welcome to satisfy growing demand, particularly in the Dublin market, albeit the increased competitiveness might constrain occupancy and ADR growth.
Ireland’s economic outlook continues to support the hotel sector. Employment hit another all-time high of 2.71 million while wages (up 4.7% year on year in Q1) are now growing in real terms as inflation (2.2% in June 2024) eases. Tourist trends also continue to be strong. Overnight trips by foreign visitors (over rolling 12-month periods) gradually rose in the first half of the year as has the average spend.
As the capital of Spain, Madrid holds a prominent position as a cultural, economic and political hub in Europe. Its rich history, vibrant arts scene, world-renowned culinary offerings as well as its many corporate head offices and financial institutions attract a diverse range of visitors, including both leisure travellers and business professionals. Additionally, Madrid's strategic location within Spain and its well-connected transportation infrastructure, including its international airport and high-speed rail services, facilitate easy access for both domestic and international travellers. The city's tourism sector, which was heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, experienced a gradual recovery from the latter half of 2021, buoyed by successful vaccination campaigns and the easing of travel restrictions both domestically and internationally.
Inflation has been inescapable during the past 12 months, and the hotel industry has been one of the worst affected sectors in the UK. Recent data has shown that the average price of a night in a hotel has gone up by as much as 12.1% in the past year, with further price rises predicted. Against the backdrop of the cost-of-living crisis, which is already squeezing consumers on all fronts, right now hotel managers are faced with the challenge of convincing people to book a stay at their hotel at an increased cost.
Spanish hotel transactions exceeded €1.6Bn in H1 2024, involving 56 properties and over 8,100 rooms. This is about a 3% increase compared to H1 2023 and 56% above the 5-year average (2019-2023). The Balearics, Barcelona, and Madrid were the most active hotel investment markets, supported by healthy operating results. Elevated investment activity is expected going forward, likely exceeding €3.0Bn by the end of 2024.
Investment TrendsItalian hotel transactions exceeded €800 million in H1 2024, involving over 30 properties and nearly 4,500 rooms. This marks a 90% increase compared to H1 2023, positioning Italy as the fourth largest European market by transaction volume for the first half of 2024, behind the United Kingdom, Spain, and France. Hotel investments were primarily driven by domestic and European investors, amounting to 85% of the volumes in H1.
Berlin, Germany’s largest city with a population exceeding 3.7 million, is a vibrant hub of culture, innovation and diversity. Renowned for its top universities, dynamic sports events, world-class museums and captivating arts scene, Berlin offers a rich tapestry of experiences. With residents of 190 different nationalities, Berlin embraces inclusivity and creativity, making it a truly cosmopolitan destination.
Transaction volumes in the UK hotel real estate market have significantly increased in the first half of 2024, reaching levels unseen since H1 2015. According to new data from Cushman & Wakefield, this revival saw around £3.9 billion transacted by hotel investors in the first half of the year. Fuelled by several major private equity portfolio deals, half-yearly investment saw a 210% upswing in activity versus the same period in 2023.
In the first four months of 2024, full-service branded hotels in Barcelona recorded a healthy performance increase, underpinned by growing tourism demand and the regulation constraining hotel development.
Termination clauses in hotel management agreements (“HMAs”) are keenly negotiated by owners to ensure the liquidity of their investment. These usually include a termination provision in the event the operator underperforms, generally known as a performance test clause. How are these clauses challenged before the courts in France?
International hotel brands will continue to pour into Spain, according to Global Asset Solution’s Spanish Hotel Market Outlook 2024. The company said that it expected to see budget brands join the swelling numbers of luxury flags as both domestic and international tourism grew.
The resurgence of travel activity in Venice following the years afflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic has not only been a sign of recovery but also an indicator of evolving trends within the city's tourism sector. In line with what was observed in other Italian cities, Venice's hotel market experienced an unprecedented surge in the post-pandemic era. While overall occupancy rates remain below pre-pandemic levels, the upper upscale and luxury market segments appear to have fully rebounded. This recovery, along with a significant increase in average rates, has resulted in a notably positive impact on Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR).
The City of Light enjoys a well-balanced blend of business and leisure demand resulting in both a broad seasonality and strong average rates. Since 2015, Paris has faced multiple challenges which highly disrupted hotel performances. As the city was recovering from the 2015-16 terrorist attacks, the ‘yellow vests’ movement and pension reform strikes of 2018-19 and the transportation strike of 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world. The market has since shown remarkable resilience and has gradually recovered, reaching record levels of RevPAR in 2023. Despite and throughout this tumultuous period, Paris has maintained its status as one of the most sought-after destinations for hotel investment, owing to its robust underlying fundamentals.
With a population of more than 930,000 , the capital city of Amsterdam lies on the coast of the province of North Holland. The city – known for its historic canals, the famous Van Gogh Museum, the Rijksmuseum, and the coffee shops of the Red Light District – is also a significant financial and business centre in Europe. There were more than 3,500 international companies in the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area (AMA) in 2023, representing more than 30% of the private-sector jobs. The city is highly accessible via local, national and international transport links. Amsterdam has excellent domestic and international connections via Amsterdam Schiphol Airport, the European high-speed rail network and the North Sea Canal.